FNUS75 KGJT 170427
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TOMICHI CREEK...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
927 PM MST SUN DEC 16 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON DECEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSETTLED FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON MONDAY...THEN
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THE AIR MASS...AND A MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW WILL ALLOW FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING TO
                    2500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30000 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
                    THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH...INCREASING TO
                    10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
                    30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    3000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...J CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121217.TOMIC.02/GJT