FNUS73 KLSX 081328
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR GRAHAM CAVE GLADES...MODNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
728 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 CST ON JANUARY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
2000 FEET. DEW POINTS NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE...ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 53.
RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WINDS SOUTH AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTH
                    2 TO 3 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
                    USING 0.3 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTH
                    5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...1700 FT AGL AT
                    MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (4540 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30.
RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WEST WIND 2 MPH BECOMING LIGHT LATE.
                    USING 0.3 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR.
WIND...20 FT........WEST WIND 5 TO 6 MPH BECOMING LIGHT LATE.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 52.
RH..................MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....LIGHT WIND BECOMING EAST AROUND 2 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. USING 0.3 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR.
WIND...20 FT........LIGHT WIND BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (2121 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...BYRD
REQUESTED BY...BRUCE SCHUETTE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130108.GRAHA.01/LSX