FNUS73 KUNR 091219
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR FRENCH CREEK 3...SD WILDLAND FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 AM MST WED JAN 9 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MST ON JANUARY 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR STARTING AROUND 900 PM AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.

A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE FIRE AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW...ARCTIC
AIR...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURE.........NEAR 50 AT IGNITION...MAX 56.
RH..................32 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST 11 TO 16 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTS TO 24 MPH OVER EXPOSED AREAS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT EARLY...THEN 2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...
                    MAXING OUT AROUND 2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 25
                    TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EARLY...THEN FAIR AT IGNITION...THEN GOOD IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34.
RH..................MAX 52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO
                    15 TO 25 MPH AFTER 900 PM...GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 54.
RH..................MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 18 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING FAIR MIDDAY.

$$
FORECASTER...EH
REQUESTED BY...JAY WICKHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130109.FRENC.02/UNR