FNUS75 KBOU 141251 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LYNX PASS...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 551 AM MST MON JAN 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON JANUARY 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COLD DAY AS THE EVER PRESENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD KEEPING ARCTIC AIR SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY...THEN RETURN TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL BE INCREASING SLOWLY OUT OF THE WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DISPERSION WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF A GOOD RATING TODAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH POOR DISPERSION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AT THE BURN AREA MAY BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS IT MAY TAKE AWHILE TO SCOUR OUT THE CURRENT VERY COLD AIRMASS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 1 ABOVE. MIN HUMIDITY........57%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 5800-6800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 1100...THEN WEST AROUND 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300. GOOD AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2300...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 2300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 19 BELOW. MAX HUMIDITY........78%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 2200-2600 FT AGL AFTER 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 10. MIN HUMIDITY........48%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN WEST 8-9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...NOT AS COLD. PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 4. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 4. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 5. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LYNX PASS. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/14-04 79 20 4-18 73 W 2 2 2 1 WSW 36 1078 NNW 2 2087 P 01/14-05 73 10 2-19 99 WNW 2 2 2 1 WSW 32 553 NNW 2 1194 P 01/14-06 73 10 2-20 99 NW 2 2 2 1 WSW 29 524 NNW 2 1036 P 01/14-07 73 10 2-22 99 CALM 1 2 1 WSW 25 496 N 2 878 P 01/14-08 73 10 2-22 99 CALM 1 2 1 WSW 22 467 N 2 720 P 01/14-09 73 10 2-18 99 CALM 1 2 1 WSW 20 1687 NNW 2 5378 P 01/14-10 73 10 2-13 99 CALM 1 2 1 WSW 17 2907 WNW 3 10035 P 01/14-11 61 10 2 -7 78 WSW 2 2 2 1 WSW 16 4126 W 5 14692 P 01/14-12 61 10 2 -4 71 WSW 3 3 2 1 W 14 5169 W 6 29928 P 01/14-13 61 10 2 0 61 W 5 5 2 1 WNW 13 6212 W 8 45164 F 01/14-14 61 10 2 1 59 W 6 6 2 1 NW 12 7255 W 9 60399 G 01/14-15 61 10 2 1 57 WNW 7 7 2 1 NW 12 6731 W 10 60819 G 01/14-16 61 10 2 0 57 WNW 7 7 2 1 NW 14 6206 WNW 12 61239 G 01/14-17 57 2 0 -2 59 WNW 7 7 2 1 NW 16 5681 WNW 13 61658 G 01/14-18 57 2 0 -5 65 WNW 7 7 2 1 NNW 22 5106 W 13 54884 F 01/14-19 57 2 0 -6 66 W 6 6 2 1 N 28 4530 W 13 48109 F 01/14-20 57 2 0 -6 64 W 6 6 2 1 N 35 3955 W 12 41334 F 01/14-21 57 2 0 -7 66 W 6 6 2 1 N 39 3469 W 12 34932 P 01/14-22 57 2 0 -8 68 W 6 6 2 1 N 44 2983 W 10 28531 P 01/14-23 67 22 4-12 74 W 6 6 2 1 N 47 2497 W 10 22129 P 01/15-00 67 22 4-15 77 W 6 6 2 1 N 53 2414 W 10 21783 P 01/15-01 67 22 4-16 78 W 6 6 2 1 N 59 2330 W 10 21436 P 01/15-02 67 22 4-18 78 W 6 6 2 1 N 63 2247 W 10 21090 P 01/15-03 67 22 4-18 73 WNW 6 6 2 1 N 66 2444 W 12 25023 P 01/15-04 67 22 4-13 77 WNW 6 6 2 1 N 68 2642 WNW 13 28957 P 01/15-05 82 38 16 -7 64 NW 6 6 2 1 N 73 2840 WNW 14 32891 P 01/15-06 82 38 16 -6 64 WNW 7 7 2 1 NNE 82 2805 WNW 13 30298 P 01/15-07 82 38 16 -5 65 WNW 8 13 2 1 NNE 93 2769 NW 12 27706 P 01/15-08 82 38 16 -3 65 W 9 15 2 1 NNE107 2734 NW 10 25113 P 01/15-09 82 38 16 1 60 W 9 15 2 1 NNE105 3238 NW 13 38298 P 01/15-10 82 38 16 4 56 W 10 16 2 1 NNE 98 3741 NNW 15 51482 F 01/15-11 83 44 21 6 50 W 10 16 2 1 NNE 90 4245 N 17 64666 G 01/15-12 83 44 21 8 49 W 10 16 2 1 NNE 85 4211 NNW 17 61422 G 01/15-13 83 44 21 9 48 W 10 16 2 1 NNE 82 4177 NNW 16 58177 F 01/15-14 83 44 21 10 51 W 9 15 2 1 NNE 79 4143 NNW 15 54933 F 01/15-15 83 44 21 10 55 W 8 14 2 1 NNE 79 3733 NNW 16 50275 F 01/15-16 83 44 21 10 62 W 8 13 2 1 NNE 81 3322 NW 16 45618 F 01/15-17 83 47 23 10 66 W 7 7 2 1 NNE 81 2912 NW 16 40960 F 01/15-18 83 47 23 9 71 W 6 6 2 1 NNE 77 2690 NW 14 33813 P 01/15-19 83 47 23 8 75 NNW 6 6 2 1 NNE 74 2467 NW 12 26665 P 01/15-20 83 47 23 8 76 N 5 5 2 1 NNE 69 2245 NW 10 19518 P 01/15-21 83 47 23 7 80 N 5 5 2 1 NNE 64 2122 NW 10 18880 P 01/15-22 83 47 23 6 83 NNE 6 6 2 1 NNE 61 1999 NNW 10 18242 P 01/15-23 62 25 5 6 83 NNE 6 6 2 1 NNE 58 1875 NNW 10 17604 P 01/16-00 62 25 5 6 83 NNE 6 6 2 1 NNE 55 1756 NNW 8 13454 P 01/16-01 62 25 5 6 83 NNE 6 6 2 1 NNE 54 1636 NNW 6 9305 P 01/16-02 40 25 5 6 83 NNE 6 6 2 1 NNE 52 1516 NNW 3 5155 P 01/16-03 40 25 5 5 87 NNE 6 6 2 1 NNE 49 1413 N 5 5675 P 01/16-04 40 25 5 5 87 NNE 7 7 2 1 NNE 46 1310 N 6 6196 P 01/16-05 28 0 0 4 91 NNE 7 7 2 1 NNE 41 1206 N 7 6716 P 01/16-06 28 0 0 4 91 NNE 7 7 2 1 NNE 37 1224 N 7 6887 P 01/16-07 28 0 0 5 86 NNE 7 7 2 1 NNE 32 1241 N 7 7058 P 01/16-08 20 0 0 7 80 NNE 7 7 2 1 NNE 29 1258 N 7 7228 P 01/16-09 20 0 0 11 68 NNE 6 6 2 1 NNE 26 1713 N 9 14784 P 01/16-10 20 0 0 16 56 NE 6 6 2 1 N 25 2169 NNE 12 22339 P 01/16-11 16 0 0 20 49 ENE 5 5 2 1 N 25 2624 NNE 13 29894 P 01/16-12 16 0 0 23 45 ESE 5 5 2 1 N 24 2740 NNE 13 30753 P 01/16-13 16 0 0 24 45 S 5 5 2 1 N 23 2856 NNE 13 31611 P 01/16-14 16 0 0 23 50 SW 5 5 2 1 N 22 2973 NE 13 32469 P 01/16-15 16 0 0 21 58 W 5 5 2 1 N 22 2398 NNE 9 22786 P 01/16-16 16 0 0 19 66 NNW 3 3 3 1 N 23 1824 N 6 13103 P 01/16-17 23 1 0 16 77 NNE 3 3 3 1 N 23 1250 NNW 3 3419 P 01/16-18 23 1 0 14 81 NNE 3 3 3 1 N 23 1037 NNW 2 2549 P 01/16-19 23 1 0 12 83 NNE 3 3 4 1 N 22 823 N 2 1679 P 01/16-20 23 1 0 11 80 NNE 3 3 4 1 N 22 610 CALM 809 P 01/16-21 23 1 0 9 80 NNE 3 3 4 1 N 20 612 CALM 615 P 01/16-22 23 1 0 8 76 NE 3 3 3 1 N 18 613 CALM 421 P 01/16-23 17 0 0 8 69 NE 3 3 3 1 N 17 615 CALM 227 P 01/17-00 17 0 0 7 67 NNE 3 3 3 1 N 17 629 CALM 457 P 01/17-01 17 0 0 6 66 N 3 3 3 1 NNW 17 644 CALM 688 P 01/17-02 17 0 0 6 63 N 3 3 3 1 NNW 17 659 CALM 918 P 01/17-03 17 0 0 6 61 NNW 3 3 3 1 NNW 18 636 W 2 1042 P 01/17-04 17 0 0 5 63 WNW 2 2 3 1 NW 20 613 W 2 1165 P 01/17-05 17 0 0 4 65 W 2 2 3 1 NW 21 590 W 2 1289 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN REQUESTED BY...LEE NELSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130114.LYNXP.01/BOU