FNUS72 KJAX 181156 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR CONE HEAD...OSCEOLA NATIONAL FOREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 656 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0410 EST ON JANUARY 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH...AND HIGH DISPERSION AND ERC VALUES... .DISCUSSION... COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL A DRY AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...WITH HIGH DISPERSION AND ERC INDICES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OUR REGION AND WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60. MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....45 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 90 LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 100 IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LVORI...............3. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........29 28 28 27 25 23 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............41 46 55 62 62 62 RH..............81 69 51 38 30 30 20 FT WIND......N 10 N 12 NE 17 NE 20 NE 20 NE 15 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 1600 3300 4900 5000 5000 TRANSPORT WIND..N 14 N 22 NE 35 NE 32 NE 28 NE 25 LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 DISPERSION INDX.19 45 90 100 100 85 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-2000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 18 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....25 DECREASING TO 5 LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........21 21 22 22 26 31 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............58 48 42 38 36 36 RH..............40 65 80 90 100 100 20 FT WIND......NE 10 NE 7 NE 5 N 6 N 6 N 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4000 2000 1100 300 100 100 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 25 NE 23 NE 18 N 9 N 5 N 5 LVORI...........2 3 4 6 9 9 DISPERSION INDX.18 12 9 5 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-4300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 9 TO 18 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 70 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LVORI...............5. $$ FORECASTER...NELSON REQUESTED BY...MARLENE BULLARD TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130118.CONEH.01/JAX