FNUS75 KBOU 232108 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR THOMPSON GULCH FIRE...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 208 PM MST WED JAN 23 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1329 MST ON JANUARY 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE BENEATH A STRONG AND DIRTY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE EAST CAUSING LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND ON EAST FACING SLOPES INCLUDING THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...WILL LIKELY SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WITH STRONGER GUSTS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE GUSTY WESTERLY/ DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THESE WINDY AREAS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES...CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING THE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY AND RH VALUES REMAIN ON THE VERY LOW SIDE FOR MUCH OF DAY THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 20. MAX HUMIDITY........28-34%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-9 MPH UNTIL 2300. WINDS WEST AROUND 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 32 MPH AFTER 0200. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30-35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38. MIN HUMIDITY........22-29%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 10-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 4500-5500 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30-35 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 40-45 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR THOMPSON GULCH FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/23-13 51 0 0 43 10 W 20 30 5 1 W 23 4833 W 32 136788 V 01/23-14 31 0 0 43 11 W 18 30 5 1 W 23 5238 W 32 144626 V 01/23-15 31 0 0 42 12 W 15 23 5 1 W 23 3900 W 32 107894 V 01/23-16 31 0 0 41 13 W 9 15 4 1 W 25 2561 W 32 71161 G 01/23-17 31 0 0 39 15 W 6 6 4 1 WSW 26 1223 W 32 34429 P 01/23-18 31 0 0 38 15 W 6 6 4 1 WSW 28 945 W 31 26175 P 01/23-19 31 0 0 36 16 W 7 7 4 1 W 29 666 W 30 17920 P 01/23-20 38 0 0 34 17 W 8 13 4 1 W 30 388 W 29 9666 P 01/23-21 38 0 0 33 19 W 8 8 4 1 W 30 398 W 29 9813 P 01/23-22 38 0 0 33 21 W 7 7 4 1 WSW 32 407 W 28 9960 P 01/23-23 52 0 0 32 24 W 8 13 4 1 WSW 36 417 W 28 10107 P 01/24-00 52 0 0 32 24 W 12 18 4 1 WSW 43 431 W 29 11028 P 01/24-01 52 0 0 31 25 W 16 25 4 1 WSW 49 446 W 31 11949 P 01/24-02 52 0 0 29 27 W 20 31 4 1 W 56 461 W 32 12869 P 01/24-03 52 0 0 26 31 W 20 32 3 1 W 58 516 W 33 15046 P 01/24-04 52 0 0 24 36 W 20 31 3 1 W 56 570 W 35 17222 P 01/24-05 68 9 2 22 43 W 18 30 2 1 W 55 625 W 36 19398 P 01/24-06 68 9 2 21 52 W 18 29 2 1 W 54 775 W 38 26447 P 01/24-07 68 9 2 20 63 W 18 29 2 1 W 53 925 W 41 33495 P 01/24-08 68 9 2 20 71 W 20 31 2 1 W 52 1075 W 44 40543 F 01/24-09 68 9 2 22 69 W 24 38 2 1 W 56 2267 W 51 112586 V 01/24-10 68 9 2 25 62 W 29 46 2 1 W 62 3459 W 56 184629 E 01/24-11 89 22 4 29 53 W 33 53 2 1 W 69 4652 W 63 256671 E 01/24-12 89 22 4 33 46 W 35 55 2 1 W 75 4987 W 64 279860 E 01/24-13 89 22 4 37 39 W 35 56 2 1 W 79 5323 W 66 303049 E 01/24-14 89 22 4 38 37 W 35 55 2 1 W 83 5658 W 67 326238 E 01/24-15 89 22 4 37 39 W 35 56 2 1 W 84 5000 W 62 275036 E 01/24-16 89 22 4 33 45 W 36 56 2 1 W 82 4343 WNW 58 223835 E 01/24-17 77 42 19 28 53 W 35 55 2 1 WNW 78 3685 WNW 54 172633 E 01/24-18 77 42 19 20 51 W 25 40 3 1 WNW 71 2771 WNW 49 126203 V 01/24-19 77 42 19 18 55 W 26 41 3 1 NW 63 1857 W 45 79772 G 01/24-20 77 42 19 16 59 W 26 43 4 1 NW 58 942 W 40 33342 P 01/24-21 77 42 19 14 62 W 25 41 4 1 NW 55 752 W 39 26001 P 01/24-22 77 42 19 13 63 W 24 39 4 1 NW 55 562 W 37 18659 P 01/24-23 31 0 0 12 64 W 23 37 4 1 NW 56 372 W 35 11317 P 01/25-00 31 0 0 11 64 W 22 36 4 1 WNW 55 340 W 33 10054 P 01/25-01 31 0 0 10 65 W 22 35 3 1 WNW 54 309 W 32 8791 P 01/25-02 31 0 0 10 63 W 21 33 3 1 WNW 53 277 W 31 7527 P 01/25-03 31 0 0 10 62 W 20 32 3 1 WNW 52 294 W 31 7816 P 01/25-04 31 0 0 10 60 W 20 31 3 1 WNW 51 311 W 30 8105 P 01/25-05 37 0 0 10 60 W 18 30 3 1 WNW 48 328 W 30 8394 P 01/25-06 37 0 0 9 64 W 18 29 3 1 WNW 45 329 W 29 8131 P 01/25-07 37 0 0 9 66 W 18 29 4 1 WNW 39 330 W 28 7868 P 01/25-08 37 0 0 11 63 W 17 28 4 1 WNW 36 332 W 26 7605 P 01/25-09 37 0 0 16 53 W 15 24 4 1 WNW 32 798 W 24 14177 P 01/25-10 37 0 0 21 45 W 13 20 3 1 W 31 1263 W 21 20749 P 01/25-11 43 0 0 26 38 W 10 16 3 1 W 30 1729 W 18 27321 P 01/25-12 43 0 0 29 35 W 10 16 3 1 W 29 2049 W 18 32181 P 01/25-13 43 0 0 29 36 W 12 17 4 1 W 28 2369 W 18 37042 P 01/25-14 43 0 0 28 39 W 12 18 4 1 WSW 29 2689 W 18 41903 F 01/25-15 43 0 0 25 46 W 10 16 4 1 WSW 30 2366 W 17 36104 P 01/25-16 43 0 0 22 55 W 9 9 5 1 W 32 2043 W 17 30306 P 01/25-17 53 8 2 19 65 W 8 8 5 1 W 35 1721 W 16 24507 P 01/25-18 53 8 2 17 70 W 8 8 1 01/25-19 53 8 2 16 72 W 9 9 1 01/25-20 53 8 2 15 73 W 10 16 1 01/25-21 53 8 2 15 71 W 10 16 1 01/25-22 53 8 2 14 72 WSW 9 15 1 01/25-23 61 5 1 14 70 WSW 9 9 1 01/26-00 61 5 1 14 70 WSW 9 9 1 01/26-01 61 5 1 13 75 WSW 9 15 1 01/26-02 61 5 1 13 78 WSW 10 16 1 01/26-03 61 5 1 13 81 W 10 17 1 01/26-04 61 5 1 13 86 W 12 18 1 01/26-05 63 28 8 13 92 W 12 18 1 01/26-06 63 28 8 13 98 W 12 18 1 01/26-07 63 28 8 13 100 W 12 17 1 01/26-08 63 28 8 16 100 W 10 17 1 01/26-09 63 28 8 20 90 W 10 16 1 01/26-10 63 28 8 25 78 W 9 15 1 01/26-11 72 37 15 30 66 W 9 9 1 01/26-12 72 37 15 32 62 W 9 9 1 01/26-13 72 37 15 32 62 W 9 9 1 01/26-14 72 37 15 31 63 W 8 8 1 01/26-15 72 37 15 29 68 W 8 8 1 01/26-16 72 37 15 26 75 W 8 8 1 01/26-17 72 28 8 24 81 W 8 8 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER REQUESTED BY...MAJOR ALBERS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130123.ANDYR.01/BOU