FNUS72 KTAE 241316 FWSTAE SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK CREEK FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 816 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0748 EST ON JANUARY 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (850)942-8835. .DISCUSSION...THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SHOULD FEATURE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRY WEATHER. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL MIXED AND DISPERSIONS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH. FOR TODAY...FORECAST DISPERSIONS AT THE WILDFIRE LOCATION ARE AROUND 100. FOR FRIDAY THEY ARE CLOSER TO 80-90. DESPITE THE HIGH DISPERSION VALUES...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE 35 PERCENT LEVEL REQUIRED FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. DESPITE THAT...STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER DISPERSIONS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY COULD LEAD TO A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR FIRE GROWTH. A HYSPLIT SIMULATION OF THE SMOKE PLUME SUGGESTS THAT SMOKE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAINLY AFFECT THE AREA CENTERED ON BLOXHAM CUTOFF ROAD...PRIMARILY WEST OF WOODVILLE HWY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5400 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING INCREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH IN AFTER 10 AM. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........27 27 16 5 5 34 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............40 48 62 69 70 69 RH..............90 78 60 44 40 42 20 FT WIND......NW 0 W 2 W 7 NW 9 NW 9 NW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.3 5 10 14 14 13 EYE LEVEL WIND..NW 0 W 1 W 5 NW 7 NW 7 NW 6 EYE LEVEL WIND..3 4 9 11 11 10 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-60 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST OVERNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL IN THE EARLY EVENING DECREASING TO 800-1200 FT AGL TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST OVERNIGHT. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........34 42 48 48 53 48 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............65 59 55 52 50 49 RH..............53 65 74 77 79 81 20 FT WIND......N 7 NE 6 NE 5 NE 4 E 4 E 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 9 8 8 8 8 EYE LEVEL WIND..N 5 NE 4 NE 4 NE 3 NE 3 E 3 EYE LEVEL WIND..9 7 6 6 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................10 PERCENT. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-4900 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........48 43 42 42 40 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............47 49 56 62 67 68 RH..............85 81 70 60 54 50 20 FT WIND......E 4 E 5 SE 6 S 7 SW 9 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.7 9 10 11 13 13 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 3 E 4 SE 4 S 5 SW 6 SW 6 EYE LEVEL WIND..6 8 8 10 11 11 $$ FORECASTER...ALEX LAMERS REQUESTED BY...BOB AIRHART TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130124.BLACK.01/TAE