FNUS74 KBMX 251637 FWSBMX SPOT FORECAST FOR LOST...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1037 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1022 CST ON JANUARY 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BURN AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST...TO WEST...TO NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD START CLEARING AROUND SUNRISE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 23 TO 28 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....12 INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 58 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 80 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 62 DECREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY.............PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RAIN TEMP............59 66 69 68 65 RH..............60 54 51 51 60 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 8 S 8 SW 8 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 60 MIX HGT (FT)....2100 4200 5000 4700 2500 TRANSPORT WIND..180/18 220/26 230/28 240/26 230/18 DISPERSION......25 75 84 79 40 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42. MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....18 DECREASING TO 11 EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 20 LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 5 AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY.............MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............62 58 56 54 51 49 RH..............60 71 74 73 75 75 20 FT WIND......S 5 SW 3 W 3 NW 2 NW 2 NW 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 60 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 900 1200 1700 1600 1400 TRANSPORT WIND..230/14 260/8 290/8 000/12 000/10 010/9 DISPERSION......22 10 12 5 5 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 9 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 22 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 31 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY.............MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............46 47 50 55 57 56 RH..............77 77 67 52 44 45 20 FT WIND......N 2 N 3 N 3 N 3 N 5 N 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1100 1500 2300 3100 3100 TRANSPORT WIND..020/9 030/9 030/8 040/7 020/8 020/8 DISPERSION......4 4 4 20 31 20 $$ FORECASTER...GLEASON REQUESTED BY...PALOSTM RICHEY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130125.LOST_.01/BMX