FNUS72 KMHX 311924 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR WRC MANTEO...NCFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 224 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EST ON FEBRUARY 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY PRODUCING ENHANCED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INLAND 20 TO 25%. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS AT THE BURN SITE WILL FEATURE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. I USED A GUST FACTOR OF 1.5 TIMES THE SUSTAINED WIND WHICH IS THE STANDARD FACTOR WE USE HERE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 30% WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE DEEP IN EXCESS OF 6000 FT WITH TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 45 MPH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45. MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 6600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING WEST 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............19 21 23 24 22 15 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................39 39 42 44 44 44 RH..................64 67 57 45 38 30 20 FT WIND..........SW 14 SW 18 W 20 NW 25 NW 25 NW 20 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 35 35 40 40 35 ADI.................16 31 57 131 117 104 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30. MAX HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH...DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............7 5 6 6 7 13 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................39 35 32 31 31 30 RH..................39 43 51 53 53 56 20 FT WIND..........NW 16 NW 14 NW 14 NW 12 NW 11 NW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....30 25 25 25 15 ADI.................92 77 61 25 21 8 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............18 23 37 51 56 64 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................31 31 35 39 42 42 RH..................56 56 49 40 35 43 20 FT WIND..........NW 8 NW 6 W 6 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 ADI.................7 6 5 23 37 42 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130201.WRCMA.02/MHX