FNUS73 KLSX 051454
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR YOUNG C A  TACONIC TRAIL AND GLADE BURN...MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
854 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CST ON FEBRUARY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FORECAST AREA TODAY...
WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH ST. LOUIS METRO AREA AROUND 2 PM.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE UNTIL LATE WEEK. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........51 AT IGNITION...MAX 56.
RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WINDS WEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING 2 TO 3 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 15 MPH DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 2 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    USING 0.3 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS WEST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 17 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING
                    8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING MID
                    AND LATE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
                    7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 17 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...2600 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 23 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (8028 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

$$

FORECASTER...BYRD
REQUESTED BY...DAVID SHIEH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130205.YOUNG.01/LSX