FNUS73 KPAH 071523 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR 020713FCTA17...DOD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 923 AM CST THU FEB 7 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CST ON FEBRUARY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PASSING ACROSS INDIANA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER AND MORE HUMID AIR...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........61 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................9 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 600-2400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 22 MPH. TIME (CST) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............61 65 67 67 66 63 RH..............49 46 43 43 46 54 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.21 21 21 21 21 21 CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR.................30 PERCENT INCREASING TO 53 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............59 54 51 49 45 43 RH..............64 77 83 86 93 89 20 FT WIND......S 2 SW 2 W 3 W 4 NW 5 NW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....300 BLW100 BLW100 300 600 1100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 21 SW 22 SW 24 SW 25 W 26 NW 26 CWR.............30 30 30 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 49. RH..................MIN 58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR WEATHER COV.....S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............43 44 46 47 RH..............79 70 63 58 20 FT WIND......N 8G15 N 8G15 N 6G10 N 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 2200 2500 2600 TRANSPORT WIND..N 26 N 23 N 20 N 18 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...TREVINO REQUESTED BY...ERIC STRICKLAND TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130207.TA17_.01/PAH