FNUS75 KRIW 081836
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FREAK MOUNTAIN UNIT 9...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1136 AM MST FRI FEB 8 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1145 MST ON FEBRUARY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM MST SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO BETWEEN 1400 AND 1800 BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED WITH MORE ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BURN AREA. SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE STEADY TONIGHT AFTER 2000 AND WILL BE HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEY COULD PICK UP SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH A FEW GUSTS
OVER 15 MPH POSSIBLE HOWEVER THEY WILL EASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM BEFORE SUDDENLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT... DUE TO SOME FUNNELING AROUND THE TERRAIN...
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ERRATIC AND FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME BUT
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW EXPECTED WHEN THESE WINDS MATERIALIZE
THEY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE OF MUCH CONSEQUENCE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED SNOW
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-37.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (38200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....15-18.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING NORTH 10
                    TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.90 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 14 TO
                    15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30300-37600 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....20-23.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-72 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTH 11 TO
                    12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.90 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44300-47800 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS AROUND 12. NORTH WINDS AROUND
12 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 3. HIGHS AROUND
17. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND
7. HIGHS AROUND 18. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 13. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...JANOTA
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130208.FREAK.02/RIW