FNUS73 KPAH 121443 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR 021213FCTA14...DOD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 843 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CST ON FEBRUARY 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LOOK FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA SHORTLY AFTER IGNITION TIME...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN ANY ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE RISE AND THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING HEIGHT. A SHARPER INCREASE IN DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SHARPLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SLOWLY PUSHING THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE GRASS WEST WITH TIME AWAY FROM THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 52. RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2900-3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 1 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RN TEMP............47 49 50 51 50 49 RH..............53 50 48 46 48 52 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E NE 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.5 1.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 5 5 7 9 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36. RH..................MAX 94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 63 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN TEMP............47 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 38 37 37 RH..............58 62 68 70 73 79 82 85 89 89 92 92 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 13 15 18 21 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 60 60 60 60 60 60 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 46. RH..................MIN 65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................61 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC PC PC WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN TEMP............37 37 38 39 41 42 43 44 45 45 45 44 RH..............92 92 89 85 79 76 73 70 68 68 68 68 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N NW NW NW NW W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.5 2.6 1.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE N N N N N N NW NW W W TRANSP WIND SPD.23 24 25 24 24 23 21 20 17 14 12 10 CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...ERIC STRICKLAND TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130212.02121.01/PAH