FNUS75 KGJT 131601
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MESA VERDE ADMIN PILES...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
901 AM MST WED FEB 13 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON FEBRUARY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL RESULT IN STABLE CONDITIONS FOR POOR
SMOKE DISPERSION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHWEST COLORADO
THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE IT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
BURN AREA...IT WILL BRING A LITTLE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND LOWER
STABILITY AND A LITTLE MORE WIND. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FEW HOURS OF
LOW-END FAIR SMOKE DISPERSION DURING MID-AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....29-34 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1030...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (29600 KT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL BY 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1030...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTH-NORTHWEST 17 MPH BY 2100

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-38 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 10-13 MPH BY 1300. SOME GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN LOW-END FAIR (41300 KT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH-NORTHWEST 19 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...KEITH KRAUSE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130213.MESAV.01/GJT