FNUS74 KLZK 171305 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTEL BEAR CREEK SOUTH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 705 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON FEBRUARY 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RH VALUES BEING ON THE RISE AS TIME GOES ON. THAT SAID...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S THIS MORNING SO IT WILL TAKE THEM A WHILE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND AS SUCH...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. AT THE BURN SITE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN PICK UP A MORE TRUE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD NOT DIE DOWN COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 61. RH..................42 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 2800 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. LVORI...............1. TIME (CST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............50 53 56 58 60 59 59 RH..............42 39 37 36 35 38 40 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..10 12 12 12 12 12 12 20 FT WIND GUST.11 12 12 12 12 12 12 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.6 7 7 7 7 7 7 EYE LVL WND GST.6 7 7 7 7 7 7 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.17 18 20 20 20 18 18 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47. RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 15 TO 23 MPH. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. LVORI...............1. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM TEMP............57 56 54 53 52 52 51 50 50 49 49 49 RH..............45 48 51 54 56 59 61 64 67 70 72 75 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 10 10 9 9 9 10 12 12 13 14 20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 11 11 9 9 9 11 12 12 13 14 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 EYE LVL WND GST.7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.17 17 16 16 15 15 15 16 17 20 21 23 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63. RH..................MIN 67 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 20 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 17 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3700 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. LVORI...............1. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............48 49 50 52 55 57 59 60 61 62 61 59 RH..............78 80 79 76 73 70 67 67 68 69 75 84 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..15 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 12 12 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 12 12 11 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S SW SW W W EYE LVL WND SPD.9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 EYE LVL WND GST.9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S SW SW SW W TRANSP WIND SPD.24 25 26 28 28 29 28 26 24 22 20 17 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 40 40 40 70 70 70 60 60 60 $$ FORECASTER...C DALTON REQUESTED BY...CLAYTON SWANGER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130217.LITTE.01/LZK