FNUS72 KJAX 181230 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR JSF LONGBRANCH BURN...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 730 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EST ON FEBRUARY 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A DEVELOPING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE VERY LOW RH VALUES...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AND LOW RH VALUES FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60. MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL LATE THIS MORNING. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 2 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 13 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO INCREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 65 IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LVORI...............3. TIME (EST) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........7 8 11 19 22 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............35 50 58 61 59 RH..............60 32 25 30 40 20 FT WIND......E 6 E 8 E 10 E 12 SE 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 3000 4000 4000 3500 TRANSPORT WIND..E 9 E 15 E 16 SE 15 SE 14 LVORI...........2 1 1 1 2 DISPERSION INDX.30 60 65 55 45 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100 FT AGL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DISPERSION INDEX....5. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EST) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM SKY (%).........22 31 48 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 48 44 RH..............45 83 98 20 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 5 S 3G5 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 800 300 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 12 S 3 LVORI...........2 4 8 DISPERSION INDX.10 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 13 TO 17 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 25 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 80 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. $$ FORECASTER...NELSON REQUESTED BY...BRIAN CAMPOSANO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130218.JSFLO.01/JAX