FNUS72 KJAX 181323 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR THOMAS CREEK BURN...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 823 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0925 EST ON FEBRUARY 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A DEVELOPING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE VERY LOW RH VALUES...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AND LOW RH VALUES FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60. MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........EAST 9 TO 16 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....20 INCREASING TO 45 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 60 IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........7 7 11 19 24 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............38 50 60 60 58 RH..............55 35 25 30 45 20 FT WIND......NE 3 E 8 E 10 SE 12 SE 10 20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 3500 4200 4300 3500 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 10 E 15 E 16 E 15 SE 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-600 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 2 TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DISPERSION INDEX....5. TIME (EST) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM SKY (%).........24 33 51 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 47 44 RH..............45 81 95 20 FT WIND......SE 8G15 S 5 S 3G5 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 1100 300 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 15 SE 15 S 2 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 53 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 70 81 IN THE AFTERNOON. $$ FORECASTER...NELSON REQUESTED BY...PAT DEREN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130218.THOMA.01/JAX