FNUS71 KAKQ 201341 FWSAKQ SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK LAKE SP...VA DCR-STATE PARKS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 841 AM EST WED FEB 20 2013 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY... LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45. MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....WEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3200-4800 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 21 MPH...INCREASING TO 21 TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................40 42 43 44 44 44 43 RH..................30 26 24 22 21 20 22 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......4.3 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.3 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD......12 12 13 13 12 12 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 25 25 20 20 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....23 24 25 26 26 25 21 VRATE KT-FT/1000....85 95 105 108 108 102 79 LVORI...............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.................65 71 75 78 79 75 60 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 21. MAX HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................40 37 34 32 30 29 28 27 25 24 23 23 RH..................26 31 36 39 42 44 46 48 52 54 57 57 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......3.9 3.5 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW W W 20 FT WIND SPD......9 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....16 13 13 15 16 16 15 14 13 12 12 12 VRATE KT-FT/1000....55 39 28 18 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 LVORI...............1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 ADI.................60 44 37 26 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2200-3100 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............0 0 0 3 3 3 5 5 5 16 16 16 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................22 22 25 31 36 40 42 44 45 46 46 45 RH..................59 59 52 41 33 28 25 22 21 21 21 23 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.2 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......3 3 5 6 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N TRANSP WIND SPD.....12 12 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 12 VRATE KT-FT/1000....2 2 9 16 22 25 27 31 33 35 35 21 LVORI...............3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ADI.................5 5 5 5 30 32 35 38 41 43 42 29 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECASTER...BILLET REQUESTED BY...IRENE FRENTZ TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130220.BEARC.01/AKQ