FNUS72 KILM 211522 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR PENDER BELL TRACT...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1022 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON FEBRUARY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO PENDER COUNTY FROM THE NORTH TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL BE STRONGEST (6-10 MPH) THIS MORNING BUT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CAUSING LESS FAVORABLE SMOKE TRANSPORT CONDITIONS AND LOWER BURN CATEGORIES WITH TIME. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING... BECOMING 4 TO 6 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3500 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 9 MPH. MAX ADI.............33. MAX LVORI...........3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (34960 MPH-FT). TIME (EST) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............1 4 9 16 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................50 53 55 53 RH..................28 24 24 31 20 FT WIND..........N 6 N 4 N 4 NE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 8 7 4 MIX HGT (FT)........2700 3400 3500 2700 TRANSPORT WIND......N 9 N 9 N 9 N 8 LVORI...............2 1 2 2 ADI.................27 32 30 24 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...24 31 32 22 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37. MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH. MAX ADI.............10. MAX LVORI...........3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0-10695 MPH-FT). TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............20 34 54 74 85 88 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................50 45 42 40 38 37 RH..................39 51 56 59 67 73 20 FT WIND..........NE 2 N 3 NE 3 NE 4 NE 5 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........1300 BLW100 300 200 200 300 TRANSPORT WIND......N 8 N 8 NE 8 NE 9 NE 10 NE 12 LVORI...............2 2 3 3 3 3 ADI.................4 5 5 6 7 10 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...11 0 2 2 2 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50. MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 13 MPH. MAX ADI.............24. MAX LVORI...........4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (11385-27139 MPH-FT). TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............91 93 96 98 98 99 WEATHER COV.........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TSTM COV............ TEMP................38 40 43 47 49 48 RH..................72 75 75 72 74 80 20 FT WIND..........NE 5 NE 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........1000 1500 1600 2200 2300 1900 TRANSPORT WIND......NE 12 NE 12 E 12 E 12 E 12 E 13 LVORI...............3 3 3 3 3 3 ADI.................15 18 19 23 24 23 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...11 17 18 25 27 24 $$ FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG REQUESTED BY...BRIAN COUNCIL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130221.PENDE.01/ILM