FNUS75 KBOU 281350 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SLEDGEHAMMER 4...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 650 AM MST THU FEB 28 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON FEBRUARY 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A NORTH TO SOUTH JET MOVES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS FLOW DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE AREA DRY TODAY AS THE SNOW WILL STAY OVER THE PEAKS OF WESTERN PARK COUNTY. THIS EVENING MAY BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTH AND THE JET MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER OVER YESTERDAY'S READINGS. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE AROUND MONDAY...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE IT WILL MAINLY BRING WIND. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33. MIN HUMIDITY........35%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN NORTHWEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5500 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 8700-9700 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 10200-11200 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 8300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 7 ABOVE. MAX HUMIDITY........85%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8-9 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN NORTHWEST 8-9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5700-6700 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1800. POOR AFTER 2300. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MIN HUMIDITY........37%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8-9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 5500-6500 FT AGL AFTER 1000. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SLEDGEHAMMER 4. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/28-06 47 0 0 8 52 W 7 7 3 1 NNW 35 410 WNW 12 3937 P 02/28-07 47 0 0 7 66 WNW 7 7 3 1 NNW 35 462 WNW 12 4545 P 02/28-08 55 0 0 7 76 WNW 7 7 3 1 NNW 35 514 WNW 12 5154 P 02/28-09 55 0 0 13 63 WNW 8 8 3 1 NNW 35 3026 NW 15 54508 F 02/28-10 55 0 0 20 51 WNW 8 14 2 1 NNW 35 5537 NNW 18 103863 V 02/28-11 47 0 0 26 42 NW 9 15 2 1 NNW 35 8049 NNW 22 153218 E 02/28-12 47 0 0 31 36 NW 10 16 2 1 NNW 32 9167 NNW 22 170346 E 02/28-13 47 0 0 32 35 NW 12 17 2 1 NW 31 10286 NW 21 187474 E 02/28-14 47 5 1 33 35 NW 12 18 2 1 NW 32 11404 NW 21 204602 E 02/28-15 47 5 1 31 38 NW 12 18 2 1 NW 38 9875 NW 22 182288 E 02/28-16 47 5 1 30 39 NW 12 17 2 1 NW 46 8346 NW 22 159975 E 02/28-17 68 10 2 26 46 NW 10 16 2 1 NNW 53 6817 NW 23 137661 V 02/28-18 68 10 2 21 56 NW 9 15 2 1 NNW 54 5487 NW 23 109350 V 02/28-19 68 10 2 18 63 NW 9 14 2 1 NNW 54 4156 NW 22 81039 G 02/28-20 68 10 2 17 64 NW 8 13 2 1 N 52 2825 NNW 22 52728 F 02/28-21 68 10 2 16 64 WNW 8 13 2 1 N 49 2192 NNW 18 38235 P 02/28-22 68 10 2 14 66 WNW 8 13 3 1 NNW 47 1558 NNW 15 23742 P 02/28-23 56 6 1 14 64 WNW 8 13 3 1 NNW 49 925 NNW 12 9249 P 03/01-00 56 6 1 14 63 WNW 8 13 3 1 NNW 60 929 NW 12 9055 P 03/01-01 56 6 1 13 67 WNW 8 13 2 1 N 73 933 NW 10 8861 P 03/01-02 56 6 1 13 67 WNW 8 13 2 1 N 82 937 NW 10 8667 P 03/01-03 56 6 1 11 70 WNW 9 15 2 1 N 82 765 NW 12 7456 P 03/01-04 56 6 1 9 73 WNW 10 17 2 1 N 81 593 NW 13 6245 P 03/01-05 43 4 1 7 80 WNW 10 16 2 1 N 79 420 NW 14 5034 P 03/01-06 43 4 1 8 85 WNW 10 15 2 1 N 75 597 NW 14 7012 P 03/01-07 43 4 1 11 83 WNW 9 14 2 1 N 70 773 NW 14 8990 P 03/01-08 31 4 1 15 77 NW 9 14 2 1 N 68 950 NW 14 10968 P 03/01-09 31 4 1 21 65 NW 9 9 2 1 N 68 2877 NNW 18 66343 G 03/01-10 31 4 1 28 52 NNW 9 9 2 1 N 70 4805 NNW 24 121718 V 03/01-11 38 0 0 35 42 NNW 9 14 2 1 N 71 6732 N 30 177094 E 03/01-12 38 0 0 38 39 NNW 9 14 2 1 N 69 6836 N 29 168207 E 03/01-13 38 0 0 40 37 NNW 9 14 2 1 N 64 6939 N 26 159321 E 03/01-14 35 0 0 40 37 NNW 9 14 2 1 N 58 7042 N 24 150434 E 03/01-15 35 0 0 38 39 NNW 8 8 2 1 N 51 6024 N 23 123441 V 03/01-16 35 0 0 35 41 NNW 7 7 2 1 N 41 5006 N 22 96449 G 03/01-17 34 0 0 31 45 NNW 6 6 2 1 N 35 3988 N 20 69456 G 03/01-18 34 0 0 27 49 NNW 6 6 2 1 N 30 2796 NNW 17 47503 F 03/01-19 34 0 0 23 53 NW 6 6 2 1 NNW 26 1605 NNW 14 25550 P 03/01-20 34 0 0 19 59 WNW 7 7 2 1 NNW 25 414 NW 10 3597 P 03/01-21 34 0 0 17 61 WNW 7 7 2 1 NNW 26 396 NW 10 3502 P 03/01-22 34 0 0 15 63 WNW 8 8 2 1 NNW 28 378 WNW 10 3407 P 03/01-23 26 0 0 14 64 W 8 8 2 1 N 30 360 WNW 10 3312 P 03/02-00 26 0 0 14 62 W 8 8 2 1 N 32 338 WNW 10 3039 P 03/02-01 26 0 0 13 62 W 8 8 2 1 N 33 316 WNW 10 2766 P 03/02-02 26 0 0 12 64 W 8 8 2 1 N 36 294 WNW 9 2492 P 03/02-03 26 0 0 11 64 W 8 8 2 1 N 37 271 WNW 10 2429 P 03/02-04 26 0 0 9 69 W 8 8 2 1 NNW 39 248 WNW 12 2366 P 03/02-05 22 0 0 9 69 W 8 8 2 1 NNW 40 224 WNW 12 2303 P 03/02-06 22 0 0 10 69 W 7 7 2 1 NNW 41 279 WNW 12 2613 P 03/02-07 22 0 0 14 62 WNW 7 7 2 1 NNW 41 334 WNW 10 2923 P 03/02-08 22 0 0 19 56 WNW 6 6 2 1 NNW 41 389 WNW 9 3234 P 03/02-09 22 0 0 26 51 WNW 5 5 2 1 NNW 41 2197 NW 10 20436 P 03/02-10 22 0 0 34 45 WNW 3 3 2 1 NW 40 4006 NW 10 37638 P 03/02-11 28 0 0 40 42 NW 3 3 2 1 NW 40 5814 NW 10 54840 F 03/02-12 28 0 0 44 40 WNW 5 5 2 1 NW 40 6530 NW 13 76179 G 03/02-13 28 0 0 46 38 W 6 6 2 1 NW 40 7246 NW 15 97519 G 03/02-14 28 0 0 46 38 WSW 7 7 2 1 NW 40 7962 NW 17 118859 V 03/02-15 28 0 0 44 41 WSW 7 7 2 1 NW 39 6288 WNW 15 89106 G 03/02-16 28 0 0 41 45 WSW 6 6 3 1 NW 38 4614 WNW 14 59354 F 03/02-17 28 0 0 37 50 WSW 6 6 3 1 NW 37 2939 WNW 12 29602 P 03/02-18 28 0 0 33 56 WSW 6 6 3 1 NW 36 2093 WNW 10 20594 P 03/02-19 28 0 0 30 59 WSW 6 6 3 1 NW 35 1246 W 9 11586 P 03/02-20 28 0 0 26 65 W 6 6 3 1 NW 33 399 W 7 2578 P 03/02-21 28 0 0 24 66 W 6 6 3 1 NW 32 370 W 8 2518 P 03/02-22 28 0 0 22 66 W 5 5 3 1 WNW 30 341 W 8 2458 P 03/02-23 32 0 0 21 65 W 5 5 3 1 WNW 29 311 W 9 2398 P 03/03-00 32 0 0 20 65 W 5 5 3 1 WNW 29 294 W 10 2510 P 03/03-01 32 0 0 19 66 W 6 6 3 1 W 30 276 W 12 2621 P 03/03-02 32 0 0 18 67 W 6 6 3 1 W 31 258 W 13 2732 P 03/03-03 32 0 0 16 71 W 7 7 3 1 W 31 246 W 13 2700 P 03/03-04 32 0 0 15 73 W 8 8 2 1 WNW 32 235 W 13 2668 P 03/03-05 36 0 0 15 73 W 8 8 2 1 WNW 32 223 W 14 2635 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN REQUESTED BY...RYAN HARLOW TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130228.SLEDG.01/BOU