FNUS72 KILM 281416
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRIAR PATCH BURN...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
916 AM EST THU FEB 28 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0935 EST ON FEBRUARY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL BLOW TODAY. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN OR SNOW FLURRIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOLLOWED BY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN OR POSSIBLY SNOW LATE NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BROTAK WIND PROFILE TODAY.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (14-24 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH...GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4100 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    4900-6100 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 13 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 24 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
MAX ADI.............87.
MAX LVORI...........3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-45770 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (94299-141335 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............0      8      16     19     24
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................55     56     58     61     58
RH..................55     44     35     32     42
20 FT WIND..........W 7    W 10   W 12   W 11   W 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     25     30     30     20
MIX HGT (FT)........2800   4900   5700   6100   4100
TRANSPORT WIND......W 16   W 20   W 20   W 23   W 23
LVORI...............2      1      1      1      1
ADI.................13     66     77     87     66
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...46     95     111    141    94

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MAX HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
                    MPH OVERNIGHT.
MAX ADI.............44.
MAX LVORI...........3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-41285 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............31     26     21     16     14     15
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51     46     42     41     39     37
RH..................45     54     62     66     68     69
20 FT WIND..........W 7    W 6    W 5    NW 5   NW 5   W 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     15     15     10     10     5
MIX HGT (FT)........2100   BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
TRANSPORT WIND......W 20   W 10   S 0    S 0    S 0    S 0
LVORI...............1      2      3      3      3      3
ADI.................44     7      1      4      7      5
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...41     0      0      0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...COLBY
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN COUNCIL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130228.BRIAR.01/ILM