FNUS72 KMLB 031846
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR DURRANCE FIRE...FHP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
146 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1330 EST ON MARCH 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH
SUNSET....

.DISCUSSION...ACCELERATED FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 20S WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING.

DISPERSION VALUES REMAIN VERY GOOD WITH RAPID SPREAD AND DOWNWIND
SPOTTING EXPECTED WITH ANY EXISTING FIRES OR NEW IGNITIONS.

SETTLING OF SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
AVERAGE DISPERSION.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE BURN AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZE-BURN AND DIE-OFF OF FINER
TYPE 7 FUELS. THIS COULD IMPACT ANY ADDITIONAL IGNITIONS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKS.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING 30 TO 35
                    MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....57.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EST)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............53  53  53  50  48  45  44  42  41  40  38  37
RH..............30  29  30  33  37  51  53  60  62  64  73  75
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..22  22  21  19  15  13  10  9   8   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.33  33  31  28  22  18  15  14  11  11  11  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-800 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7.
LVORI...............4.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....37.
LVORI...............1.

$$
FORECASTER...CRISTALDI
REQUESTED BY...SGT  J L  CROSBY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130303.DURRA.02/MLB