FNUS73 KAPX 051352
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRITTLE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
852 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON MARCH 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRODUCING WIND FROM THE EAST.
THIS WIND IS PUSHING MOISTURE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS MOISTURE
IS BEGINNING TO FORM CLOUDS EAST OF THE BURN SITE...AND WILL
MOVE OVER THE BURN SITE BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THESE CLOUDS...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. POSSIBLY AFTER 4PM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........19 AT IGNITION...MAX 31.
RH..................74 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1800 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2200-2600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400).

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........76  87  96  100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....                            CHC
WEATHER TYPE....                            FZD
TEMP............19  25  27  28  29  30  30  29
RH..............74  68  63  71  69  66  66  69
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2
SMOKE DISP......300 300 300 300 300 300 400 400

.TONIGHT...

WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(300).

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
SMOKE DISP......400 300 300 300 300 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN STEARNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130305.BRITT.01/APX