FNUS72 KFFC 101519 AAA FWSFFC SPOT FORECAST FOR PLEASANT GAP BLACKLINE...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1119 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... UPDATED TO BETTER INITIALIZE AND IMPROVE FORECAST OF DEWPOINTS... CLOUDS AND RH VALUES IN AND AROUND THE BURN SITE FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LARGE BREAKS IN CLOUDS INITIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON... EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS HAVE MIXED DOWN AND RESULTED IN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER RH VALUES THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AN UPDATE OF EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL HOLD IN THE 25-28 PERCENT RH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE BURN SITE... DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE WARMER DEWPOINTS WELL TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE BURN AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING... SO COULD POSSIBLY SEE INCREASING RH VALUES BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IF TIMING IS OFF... BUT LEANING TOWARD WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR NOW. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID AFTERNOON. (BECOMING 65-75 PERCENT IN AFTN). TEMPERATURE.........55-58 AROUND IGNITION...MAX 69. RH..................MIN 25-27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SE AT 9 MPH GUSTS TO 16 MPH AT IGNITION. THEN SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 22 TO 28 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....75 BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 70 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON... THEN INCREASING TO 73 IN THE MID AFTERNOON. LVORI...............2. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........45 55 65 75 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 59 64 68 RH..............29 27 28 27 20 FT WIND......SE 8 S 10 S 13 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 25 DISPERSION IDX..15 75 70 73 LVORI...........2 1 1 1 CWR.............0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49. RH..................MAX 91 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 23 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....67 DECREASING TO 15 EARLY IN THE EVENING. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........75 70 68 68 70 75 WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP............68 64 59 55 53 52 RH..............30 37 48 65 73 81 20 FT WIND......S 14 S 10 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 15 15 15 15 DISPERSION IDX..66 13 13 16 16 15 LVORI...........1 2 2 2 3 4 CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 20 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64. RH..................MIN 62 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................100 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 39 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 26 TO 29 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....17 INCREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 89 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 94 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 76. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........85 91 92 92 93 94 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............51 50 54 58 60 63 RH..............88 91 84 77 72 64 20 FT WIND......S 8 S 8 S 10 S 12 S 13 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 25 20 DISPERSION IDX..13 15 26 90 97 78 LVORI...........4 5 4 3 3 1 CWR.............20 30 50 60 90 100 $$ FORECASTER...DARBE REQUESTED BY...JEFFREY R SCHARDT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130310.PLEAS.01/FFC