FNUS72 KFFC 101532 AAA
FWSFFC

SPOT FORECAST FOR TURNER JONES CREEK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1132 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MARCH 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO BETTER INITIALIZE AND IMPROVE FORECAST OF DEWPOINTS...
CLOUDS AND RH VALUES IN AND AROUND THE BURN SITE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LARGE BREAKS IN CLOUDS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON... WITH
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. BASICALLY... EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

SOME DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS HAVE MIXED DOWN AND RESULTED IN DRIER
DEWPOINTS AND LOWER RH VALUES THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AN UPDATE
OF EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST
THE MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 27-30 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE BURN SITE... DESPITE SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THE WARMER DEWPOINTS WELL TO THE SE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE BURN AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING... SO COULD POSSIBLY SEE INCREASING RH VALUES BY 4-5 PM
THIS AFTERNOON IF TIMING IS OFF. LEANING TOWARD WORSE CASE SCENARIO
FOR NOW.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........55-58 AROUND IGNITION...MAX 65.
RH..................40-45 PERCENT AROUND IGNITION...MIN 26-28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS ESE AT 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
                    WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2200-3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 17 TO 22 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....47 INCREASING TO 61 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........40     55     60     65
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............53     58     62     64
RH..............40     32     27     28
20 FT WIND......E 8    SE 8   SE 10  SE 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     20     15
DISPERSION IDX..47     48     59     61
LVORI...........1      1      1      1
CWR.............0      0      0      0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-300 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....54 DECREASING TO 12 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............3.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 59.
RH..................MIN 72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    MORNING.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3300 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 20
                    TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....12 INCREASING TO 53.
LVORI...............5.

$$
FORECASTER...DARBE
REQUESTED BY...DEMAS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130310.TURNE.02/FFC