FNUS72 KILM 111215 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR LAWA 3-11-13...NC STATE PARKS-LAWA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 815 AM EDT MON MAR 11 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 EDT ON MARCH 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS OCEAN WINDS AND CLOUDS MOVE ONSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTH 22 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX ADI.............68. MAX LVORI...........8. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1150-53359 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (66930-100624 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............68 67 69 73 72 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................45 60 66 68 67 RH..................82 66 59 56 61 20 FT WIND..........SE 2 SE 6 SE 7 S 7 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 15 15 15 20 MIX HGT (FT)........300 1600 3300 4200 3600 TRANSPORT WIND......SE 9 S 17 S 23 S 24 S 23 LVORI...............8 3 1 1 1 ADI.................10 29 57 68 60 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...2 27 75 101 82 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58. MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 22 TO 26 MPH. MAX ADI.............42. MAX LVORI...........4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1265-43585 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............70 69 71 75 81 91 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................66 63 62 61 62 61 RH..................67 75 81 83 83 87 20 FT WIND..........S 7 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........2000 300 100 200 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND......S 22 S 22 S 23 S 24 S 25 S 26 LVORI...............1 3 3 4 4 4 ADI.................42 20 21 22 23 24 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...44 6 3 6 6 7 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2300-3200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH...BECOMING WEST 14 TO 15 MPH LATE. MAX ADI.............38. MAX LVORI...........5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (4140-45310 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............97 100 93 86 80 67 WEATHER COV.........DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ ISOLTD TEMP................61 58 60 64 67 69 RH..................89 98 90 78 68 60 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 5 S 8 SW 8 SW 8 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)........200 300 900 1800 2600 3200 TRANSPORT WIND......S 24 S 21 SW 23 SW 21 SW 15 W 14 LVORI...............4 5 4 3 3 1 ADI.................22 23 28 38 33 34 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...5 5 21 38 39 44 $$ FORECASTER...COLBY REQUESTED BY...JONATHAN SHORT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130311.LAWA3.01/ILM