FNUS75 KBOU 121546 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR AG RANCH PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 945 AM MDT TUE MAR 12 2013 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SITE THROUGH THE DAY. THE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE DURING THE EVENING...WITH LOWERING MIXING HEIGHTS. ON WEDNESDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BE OVER THE AREA...THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. STILL...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING FOR ADEQUATE SMOKE DISPERSION BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY (25-35%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE RIDGES. MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-38. MIN HUMIDITY........33-37%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 1100. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 4700-5700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR...INCREASING TO VERY GOOD AFTER 1200...THEN GOOD BY 1600. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25. MAX HUMIDITY........68-71%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTHWEST 9-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3900 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR. POOR AFTER 2100. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-54. MIN HUMIDITY........27-32%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 1000-1300 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4200-5200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 8000-9000 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 5700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS 8-10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 8-9 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR AG RANCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/12-09 64 48 0 23 75 W 13 21 2 1 NW 59 1527 WNW 21 27132 P 03/12-10 64 0 0 27 61 W 12 18 2 1 NW 59 2777 WNW 23 63075 G 03/12-11 64 0 0 31 48 W 10 16 2 1 NNW 59 4028 NW 26 99017 G 03/12-12 25 0 0 34 39 WNW 9 15 2 1 NNW 56 5279 NW 30134959 V 03/12-13 25 0 0 36 34 WNW 9 15 2 1 NNW 53 5410 NW 28130428 V 03/12-14 25 0 0 37 33 WNW 10 16 2 1 NNW 47 5541 NW 26125897 V 03/12-15 25 0 0 37 33 WNW 10 16 2 1 NNW 43 5673 NW 24121366 V 03/12-16 25 0 0 36 34 WNW 9 15 2 1 NW 40 5123 NW 23104540 V 03/12-17 25 0 0 34 37 WNW 9 14 2 1 NW 38 4573 WNW 22 87713 G 03/12-18 66 0 0 32 42 WNW 8 13 2 1 NW 36 4023 WNW 21 70887 G 03/12-19 66 0 0 29 48 WNW 8 13 2 1 NW 33 2816 WNW 18 49024 F 03/12-20 66 0 0 27 55 W 8 14 3 1 WNW 30 1608 W 17 27161 P 03/12-21 75 0 0 25 63 W 9 15 3 1 WNW 29 400 W 15 5297 P 03/12-22 75 0 0 24 67 W 10 16 3 1 WNW 30 386 W 17 5561 P 03/12-23 75 0 0 24 67 W 12 18 2 1 WNW 32 371 W 18 5825 P 03/13-00 58 0 0 24 68 W 13 21 2 1 WNW 35 357 W 20 6088 P 03/13-01 58 0 0 24 68 W 14 23 2 1 WNW 36 356 W 20 6032 P 03/13-02 58 0 0 24 71 W 16 25 2 1 WNW 38 354 W 20 5976 P 03/13-03 53 0 0 23 71 W 16 25 2 1 WNW 40 352 W 20 5920 P 03/13-04 53 0 0 22 70 W 15 23 2 1 NW 43 348 W 18 5452 P 03/13-05 53 0 0 22 66 W 13 20 2 1 NW 45 343 W 17 4985 P 03/13-06 29 0 0 22 65 W 10 16 2 1 NW 45 338 W 15 4518 P 03/13-07 29 0 0 24 64 W 10 16 2 1 NNW 43 672 W 16 10029 P 03/13-08 29 0 0 27 63 W 12 18 2 1 NNW 39 1006 W 17 15540 P 03/13-09 29 0 0 32 58 W 13 21 2 1 N 35 1340 W 18 21051 P 03/13-10 29 0 0 38 48 W 12 17 2 1 N 33 3587 WNW 18 60875 G 03/13-11 29 0 0 44 39 W 9 14 2 1 NNW 33 5834 NW 20100700 V 03/13-12 13 0 0 49 33 W 7 7 2 1 NNW 35 8082 NNW 20140524 V 03/13-13 13 0 0 52 30 W 7 7 2 1 NNW 35 8568 NW 18140228 V 03/13-14 13 0 0 54 27 W 7 7 2 1 NW 35 9054 NW 18139932 V 03/13-15 13 0 0 54 27 W 8 13 2 1 NW 36 9540 NW 17139636 V 03/13-16 13 0 0 52 30 W 8 13 3 1 NW 36 7615 NW 16109180 V 03/13-17 13 0 0 50 33 W 8 13 3 1 NNW 37 5690 NW 15 78723 G 03/13-18 18 0 0 46 38 W 8 13 4 1 NNW 38 3765 WNW 15 48267 F 03/13-19 18 0 0 42 44 W 9 15 4 1 NW 38 2692 WNW 14 34210 P 03/13-20 18 0 0 38 50 W 10 17 4 1 NW 38 1619 WNW 14 20154 P 03/13-21 18 0 0 34 56 W 12 18 4 1 NW 37 546 WNW 13 6098 P 03/13-22 18 0 0 32 59 W 12 17 4 1 NW 33 472 WNW 13 5221 P 03/13-23 18 0 0 31 60 W 10 16 4 1 NW 30 399 WNW 13 4344 P 03/14-00 12 0 0 30 61 W 9 15 4 1 NW 26 325 WNW 13 3467 P 03/14-01 12 0 0 30 60 W 10 16 4 1 NW 26 368 W 13 3860 P 03/14-02 12 0 0 29 61 W 10 17 4 1 WNW 26 411 W 12 4253 P 03/14-03 12 0 0 28 63 W 12 18 4 1 WNW 26 454 W 12 4647 P 03/14-04 12 0 0 27 63 W 12 18 3 1 WNW 26 383 W 12 3868 P 03/14-05 12 0 0 26 63 W 12 17 3 1 WNW 26 312 WNW 12 3088 P 03/14-06 14 0 0 26 63 W 10 16 2 1 WNW 26 241 WNW 12 2309 P 03/14-07 14 0 0 28 63 W 9 15 2 1 WNW 25 309 WNW 10 2911 P 03/14-08 14 0 0 31 62 W 9 14 2 1 WNW 24 377 WNW 10 3513 P 03/14-09 14 0 0 36 56 W 8 13 2 1 NW 23 446 W 10 4114 P 03/14-10 14 0 0 42 47 W 7 7 2 1 NW 24 2885 WNW 14 51594 F 03/14-11 14 0 0 49 37 W 6 6 2 1 NW 25 5324 WNW 18 99074 G 03/14-12 10 0 0 54 31 W 6 6 2 1 NW 28 7763 WNW 22146554 V 03/14-13 10 0 0 56 30 W 6 6 2 1 NW 31 7658 NW 23152470 E 03/14-14 10 0 0 57 30 W 7 7 2 1 NNW 36 7552 NW 24158386 E 03/14-15 10 0 0 56 31 W 7 7 2 1 NNW 38 7447 NW 25164302 E 03/14-16 10 0 0 55 32 W 7 7 2 1 NNW 37 6453 NW 25142681 V 03/14-17 10 0 0 53 34 W 6 6 3 1 NNW 35 5459 NW 25121060 V 03/14-18 21 0 0 50 37 W 6 6 3 1 NNW 31 4465 NW 25 99439 G 03/14-19 21 0 0 46 43 W 6 6 3 1 NNW 28 3175 WNW 23 69493 G 03/14-20 21 0 0 43 48 W 7 7 4 1 NNW 25 1886 WNW 21 39548 P 03/14-21 21 0 0 40 52 W 8 13 4 1 NNW 23 596 WNW 18 9602 P 03/14-22 21 0 0 38 55 W 8 14 4 1 NW 23 511 WNW 17 7859 P 03/14-23 21 0 0 38 54 W 9 14 4 1 NW 24 426 WNW 16 6116 P 03/15-00 15 0 0 37 54 W 9 15 4 1 NW 25 342 W 15 4373 P 03/15-01 15 0 0 37 53 W 9 15 4 1 NW 26 317 W 15 3976 P 03/15-02 15 0 0 36 53 W 10 16 4 1 WNW 28 292 W 14 3579 P 03/15-03 15 0 0 35 54 W 10 16 4 1 WNW 29 267 W 14 3182 P 03/15-04 15 0 0 34 55 W 10 17 4 1 WNW 30 265 W 14 3254 P 03/15-05 15 0 0 34 54 W 10 17 4 1 WNW 32 263 W 15 3326 P 03/15-06 21 0 0 34 54 W 10 16 4 1 WNW 33 262 W 15 3398 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI REQUESTED BY...DISTRICT FMO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130312.AGRAN.01/BOU