FNUS75 KBOU 121507 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR LAKE RX PILES...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 906 AM MDT TUE MAR 12 2013 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SITE...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION WILL PREVAIL DUE TO MODERATE TRANSPORT WINDS AND FAIRLY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE THIS EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION WILL AGAIN OCCUR DUE TO THE MODERATE TRANSPORT WINDS AND FAIRLY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-39. MIN HUMIDITY........41-45%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 11-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 30-40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25. MAX HUMIDITY........70-74%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12-19 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1300-1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-48. MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12-17 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6100-7100 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 4100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30-40 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 25-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...BECOMING GOOD BY 0800. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT AFTER 1000. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 8-10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR LAKE RX PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/12-08 80 64 23 23 81 W 16 25 2 1 NW 70 4802 WNW 35145992 V 03/12-09 83 64 5 26 75 W 16 25 2 1 NW 69 5183 WNW 38169054 E 03/12-10 83 25 5 29 65 W 15 24 2 1 NW 67 5606 WNW 38184134 E 03/12-11 83 25 5 33 54 W 14 22 2 1 NNW 66 6030 WNW 38199214 E 03/12-12 50 25 2 36 46 W 13 21 2 1 NNW 63 6453 NW 38214294 E 03/12-13 50 10 2 38 42 W 13 21 2 1 NNW 60 6466 NW 37205961 E 03/12-14 50 10 2 39 41 W 14 22 2 1 NW 56 6479 NW 36197628 E 03/12-15 50 10 2 38 41 W 14 22 2 1 NW 53 6492 NW 33189296 E 03/12-16 50 10 2 35 42 W 14 22 2 1 NW 51 5356 WNW 31150397 E 03/12-17 50 10 2 32 46 W 13 21 2 1 NW 48 4219 WNW 29111499 V 03/12-18 79 20 4 28 51 W 13 21 2 1 NW 46 3083 WNW 28 72601 G 03/12-19 79 20 4 27 58 W 13 20 2 1 NW 43 2487 WNW 26 58428 F 03/12-20 79 20 4 26 64 W 13 20 3 1 WNW 39 1892 WNW 26 44255 F 03/12-21 87 20 4 25 68 W 13 21 3 1 WNW 38 1297 W 26 30082 P 03/12-22 87 20 4 25 72 W 14 22 3 1 WNW 39 1381 W 28 33638 P 03/12-23 87 20 4 24 74 W 15 23 2 1 WNW 41 1465 W 29 37194 P 03/13-00 66 20 4 24 71 W 16 25 2 1 WNW 45 1549 W 30 40749 F 03/13-01 66 20 4 24 71 W 18 29 2 1 WNW 46 1599 W 31 42401 F 03/13-02 66 20 4 24 70 W 20 32 2 1 WNW 47 1648 W 31 44052 F 03/13-03 51 0 0 24 68 W 21 33 2 1 WNW 48 1698 W 31 45703 F 03/13-04 51 0 0 23 70 W 20 31 2 1 NW 48 1563 W 30 40282 F 03/13-05 51 0 0 23 68 W 17 26 2 1 NW 47 1428 W 28 34862 P 03/13-06 44 0 0 23 71 W 15 24 2 1 NNW 45 1293 W 26 29442 P 03/13-07 44 0 0 25 66 W 15 24 2 1 NNW 41 1998 W 31 58451 F 03/13-08 44 0 0 28 61 W 16 26 2 1 NNW 37 2702 WNW 35 87460 G 03/13-09 44 0 0 31 56 W 18 30 2 1 NNW 31 3406 WNW 39116469 V 03/13-10 44 0 0 35 50 W 17 28 2 1 NNW 28 4642 WNW 37141265 V 03/13-11 44 0 0 40 43 W 15 24 3 1 NNW 28 5878 NW 33166061 E 03/13-12 28 0 0 44 38 W 14 22 3 1 NNW 29 7114 NW 31190857 E 03/13-13 28 0 0 47 34 W 14 22 3 1 NNW 33 7257 NW 29181891 E 03/13-14 28 0 0 48 32 W 15 23 3 1 NW 38 7400 NW 26172925 E 03/13-15 28 0 0 47 32 W 15 24 3 1 NW 43 7543 NW 25163958 E 03/13-16 28 0 0 44 37 W 15 23 3 1 NW 44 5844 WNW 25128104 V 03/13-17 28 0 0 40 44 W 14 23 4 1 NW 44 4146 WNW 26 92251 G 03/13-18 35 0 0 35 54 W 14 22 4 1 NW 43 2448 WNW 26 56397 F 03/13-19 35 0 0 32 59 W 14 23 4 1 NW 41 1982 W 25 45012 F 03/13-20 35 0 0 30 62 W 15 23 4 1 NW 40 1517 W 25 33628 P 03/13-21 35 0 0 29 63 W 15 24 4 1 NW 38 1051 W 24 22243 P 03/13-22 35 0 0 28 67 W 14 23 4 1 NW 35 976 W 23 19647 P 03/13-23 35 0 0 28 68 W 14 21 3 1 NW 31 900 W 22 17050 P 03/14-00 13 0 0 28 69 W 13 21 3 1 NW 28 825 W 21 14453 P 03/14-01 13 0 0 28 66 W 14 22 3 1 NW 25 781 W 20 13357 P 03/14-02 13 0 0 28 63 W 14 23 3 1 WNW 24 737 W 20 12261 P 03/14-03 13 0 0 28 60 W 15 24 3 1 WNW 23 693 W 18 11165 P 03/14-04 13 0 0 27 62 W 15 23 3 1 WNW 23 622 W 18 9851 P 03/14-05 13 0 0 26 64 W 14 22 2 1 WNW 24 551 W 17 8538 P 03/14-06 18 0 0 26 65 W 13 21 2 1 WNW 24 479 W 17 7224 P 03/14-07 18 0 0 27 66 W 12 18 2 1 WNW 24 881 W 17 13687 P 03/14-08 18 0 0 30 62 W 12 17 2 1 WNW 23 1282 W 18 20151 P 03/14-09 18 0 0 34 56 W 10 16 2 1 NW 22 1683 W 18 26614 P 03/14-10 18 0 0 39 48 W 9 15 2 1 NW 24 3262 W 22 70988 G 03/14-11 18 0 0 44 42 W 9 15 2 1 NW 26 4840 WNW 25115363 V 03/14-12 10 0 0 48 37 W 9 15 2 1 NW 30 6418 WNW 29159737 E 03/14-13 10 0 0 52 33 W 10 16 2 1 NW 33 6776 WNW 30180664 E 03/14-14 10 0 0 53 32 W 10 17 2 1 NW 36 7134 NW 32201591 E 03/14-15 10 0 0 52 33 W 12 18 2 1 NW 38 7493 NW 35222518 E 03/14-16 10 0 0 50 37 W 12 18 3 1 NW 37 6188 NW 35183705 E 03/14-17 10 0 0 46 43 W 12 18 3 1 NW 35 4883 WNW 35144892 V 03/14-18 14 0 0 43 49 W 12 18 4 1 NW 33 3578 WNW 35106078 V 03/14-19 14 0 0 40 54 W 12 18 4 1 NW 33 2866 WNW 31 81731 G 03/14-20 14 0 0 38 58 W 12 18 4 1 NW 35 2154 WNW 29 57384 F 03/14-21 14 0 0 37 59 W 12 18 4 1 NW 37 1442 WNW 26 33037 P 03/14-22 14 0 0 37 58 W 12 18 4 1 NW 36 1247 WNW 24 26687 P 03/14-23 14 0 0 36 60 W 13 20 4 1 NW 36 1052 W 22 20337 P 03/15-00 19 0 0 36 59 W 13 21 4 1 NW 36 856 W 18 13986 P 03/15-01 19 0 0 36 58 W 14 22 4 1 WNW 37 828 W 20 14031 P 03/15-02 19 0 0 36 57 W 14 23 4 1 WNW 39 800 W 21 14075 P 03/15-03 19 0 0 36 56 W 15 24 4 1 WNW 40 772 W 21 14119 P 03/15-04 19 0 0 36 56 W 16 25 4 1 WNW 41 776 W 23 15217 P 03/15-05 19 0 0 35 57 W 16 25 4 1 WNW 44 781 W 24 16315 P 03/15-06 22 0 0 35 56 W 16 25 4 1 WNW 45 786 W 25 17412 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI REQUESTED BY...JEFF SINGER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130312.BEARL.01/BOU