FNUS74 KMOB 132207 FWSMOB SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON GUARD...E.N.R. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 507 PM CDT WED MAR 13 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR THURSDAYS BURN... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH...AND ERC VALUES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 26... .DISCUSSION...DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THURSDAY ON FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN BE LOW ON THURSDAY WITH A LONG DURATION BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHEN CONSIDERING ERC VALUES LESS THAN 37. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL NOT SATISFY OTHER REQUIREMENTS. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60. MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 13 TO 16 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....11 INCREASING TO 32 UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 24 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LVORI...............3 DECREASING TO 2 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1 IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 2 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%)...........9 9 9 9 9 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE......NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP..............43 52 57 59 58 RH................48 32 25 25 29 20 FT WIND DIR....N N N N W 20 FT WIND SPD....5 7 6 6 7 20 FT WIND GUST... MIX HGT (FT)......1300 2200 3100 3100 3500 MIX HGT (M).......400 670 940 940 1070 TRANSP WIND DIR...N N N N NW TRANSP WIND SPD...16 13 9 9 7 TRANS SPD (M/S)...7 6 4 4 3 DISPERSION........27 33 36 36 24 LVORI.............2 1 1 1 2 CWR...............0 0 0 0 0 .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 8 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....24 DECREASING TO 4. LVORI...............2 INCREASING TO 4. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%)...........9 5 5 5 5 5 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE......NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP..............56 51 47 45 43 41 RH................35 46 55 60 67 76 20 FT WIND DIR....W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD....7 5 4 4 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST... MIX HGT (FT)......3500 1000 400 400 400 400 MIX HGT (M).......1070 300 120 120 120 120 TRANSP WIND DIR...NW W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD...7 7 7 7 8 7 TRANS SPD (M/S)...3 3 3 3 4 3 DISPERSION........24 3 3 3 4 3 LVORI.............2 2 3 3 3 4 CWR...............0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 43. LVORI...............4 DECREASING TO 1. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%)...........5 8 8 8 8 8 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE......NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP..............40 42 55 65 69 70 RH................82 82 60 42 37 39 20 FT WIND DIR....W NW W W SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD....3 3 5 5 7 10 20 FT WIND GUST... MIX HGT (FT)......400 400 2300 2300 4200 4500 MIX HGT (M).......120 120 700 700 1280 1370 TRANSP WIND DIR...W NW W W W SW TRANSP WIND SPD...7 7 8 8 10 12 TRANS SPD (M/S)...3 3 4 4 4 5 DISPERSION........3 7 23 23 40 45 LVORI.............4 4 2 2 1 1 CWR...............0 0 0 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...22 REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130314.JACKS.01/MOB