FNUS73 KSGF 141137 FWSSGF SPOT FORECAST FOR CARMEN SOUTH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 637 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CDT ON MARCH 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE FIRE SITE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THIS WILL PRODUCE RH PERCENTAGES IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS PERHAPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR A SHORT TIME. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. 20 FT WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTINESS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DECREASES. SIMILAR WIND AND RH CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER. ON SATURDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY IN THE MORNING...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO NORTH WITH TIME. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....46 AT IGNITION...MAX 65. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SHIFT..........WINDS SLOWLY VEERING MORE WESTERLY. CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...MAXIMUM 1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 20 TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............41 51 60 63 RH..............53 40 32 31 20 FT WIND......S 6 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....900 1500 2400 3100 TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 SW 22 SW 24 W 25 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 43. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 87 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. WIND SHIFT..........NONE. MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A. TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............62 57 53 50 48 45 RH..............34 45 58 70 78 83 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 4 W 3 W 2 W 2 W 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 600 300 200 200 200 TRANSPORT WIND..W 25 W 22 W 16 W 10 W 7 W 6 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 78. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 31 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SHIFT..........NONE. CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............43 47 59 69 75 77 RH..............90 78 56 41 33 31 20 FT WIND......SW 2 SW 2 SW 4 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 20 MIX HGT (FT)....100 200 500 1300 2800 4100 TRANSPORT WIND..W 6 W 8 SW 10 SW 15 SW 20 SW 26 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 6 6 5 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 51. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 59 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. WIND SHIFT..........TURNING WEST THEN NORTHWEST THEN NORTH WITH TIME. CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 6 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 13 TO 38 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............74 69 64 62 60 56 52 53 58 62 63 62 RH..............36 45 55 57 60 67 79 77 61 54 53 55 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 5 W 5 W 3 NW 3 NW 3 N 4 N 5 N 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 10 10 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 2100 700 500 600 500 500 400 700 2700 3800 3300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 32 SW 36 SW 38 W 38 W 35 W 30 NW 23 NW 18 N 15 NE 13 NE 13 NE 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 3 $$ FORECASTER...BOXELL REQUESTED BY...JESS REGISTER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130314.CARME.01/SGF