FNUS73 KLSX 151526
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAVER RIDGE...MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1026 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TO SURGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD ALSO
MOVE THROUGH DRY.  ONCE THE FRONT GETS TO OUR SOUTH...IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS ALONG IT AND GENERATE AREAS OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 74.
RH..................66 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WINDS WEST AT 1 MPH AT IGNITION...USING A
                    0.3 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS WEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WIND LATE IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...3200 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 17 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (7494 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51.
RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST WIND 3 TO 4 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH LATE...USING A 0.3 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHWEST WIND 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH LATE. GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 56.
RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WEST WIND AROUND 2 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 2 TO 3 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIND...20 FT........WEST WIND AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (5671 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...TES
REQUESTED BY...JAMIE HUBERT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130315.BEAVE.01/LSX