FNUS73 KPAH 142158 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR PARTNEY RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 458 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... NOTE TO USERS...THIS IS A PRELIMINARY SPOT FORECAST FOR THE MARCH 15TH PRESCRIBED BURN. ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AFTER 3 AM CDT ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO THIS SPOT FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE RESUBMITTED TO INCLUDE THE LATEST DATA AND FORECAST. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA AT IGNITION TIME ON FRIDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE JUST ABOVE THE 1700 FOOT MINIMUM WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE SCHEDULED START OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN...WITH GOOD VENTILATION AND INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP REDUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS FOR FRIDAY...COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECAST ISSUANCES...WILL BE MUCH IMPROVED...AND WELL ABOVE THE 1700 FOOT MINIMUMS...GIVEN THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 22 TO 31 MPH. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............56 61 65 68 70 72 74 74 72 RH..............70 60 53 48 46 43 41 41 44 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.8 2.4 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.4 5.2 4.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.10 15 18 22 23 23 24 28 31 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1200 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32 TO 41 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............70 67 65 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 57 56 RH..............48 54 58 63 65 67 67 69 69 72 69 72 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 2.8 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.35 37 39 40 41 41 41 41 40 38 36 32 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 66. RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC LKY WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW TEMP............55 56 58 59 61 62 63 64 65 65 64 63 RH..............74 72 67 65 60 58 55 52 48 46 48 50 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W NW NW N N N N N N NE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W NW NW NW N N N N NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.28 23 20 16 13 10 8 7 7 8 12 15 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...GREG CARLSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130315.PARTN.01/PAH