FNUS73 KLSX 161356
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR COUNCIL BLUFF DAM...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
856 AM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CDT ON MARCH 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOWED THAT THE FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBIA MO TO NEAR WASHINGTON MO TO NEAR THE SAINT LOUIS
METRO AREA AT 8 AM CDT. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND SHIFT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI OR NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER
TONIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........54 AT IGNITION...MAX 58.
RH..................71 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION USING AN ADJUSTMENT
x09x09    FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTHWEST WIND 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AT IGNITION...3300 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 17 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (7698 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN RAIN IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....NORTHEAST 2-4 MPH WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........NORTHEAST WIND 7 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 41.
RH..................MIN 69 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....EAST WIND 2-4 MPH WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........EAST WIND 7 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 25 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (6913 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...KANOFSKY
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS WOODS  DFMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130316.COUNC.01/LSX