FNUS73 KSGF 160837 FWSSGF SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK CREEK...USDA - FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 337 AM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MARCH 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING...BEFORE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL INITIALLY DROP DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 45 AND 50 PERCENT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...VALUES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57 AT IGNITION...MAX 67. MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS WEST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFT..........TURNING TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...MAXIMUM 1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 28 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............57 59 61 63 65 66 67 67 67 65 RH..............64 64 61 58 54 51 48 46 45 46 20 FT WIND DIR..W N N N N NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW N NE NE NE NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.25 23 21 18 16 15 15 16 16 18 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 45. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 74 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. WIND SHIFT..........NONE. CHANCE OF PRECIP....60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A. TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV..... CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............63 58 54 52 49 47 RH..............48 55 61 68 71 72 20 FT WIND......NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2600 1600 1300 1300 1400 1400 TRANSPORT WIND..E 20 E 22 E 23 E 24 E 24 E 24 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 40 60 80 90 90 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 48. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 76 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. WIND SHIFT..........NONE. CHANCE OF PRECIP....90 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............46 46 45 47 47 47 RH..............76 83 88 85 83 82 20 FT WIND......E 4 E 4 E 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1100 1200 1500 1600 1500 TRANSPORT WIND..E 24 E 24 E 25 E 24 E 23 E 21 CHC OF PCPN (%).90 90 90 90 90 90 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 39. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 73 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. WIND SHIFT..........EAST...BECOMING SOUTH...AND THEN WEST. CHANCE OF PRECIP....90 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 23 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............48 47 44 43 43 41 41 40 39 47 54 54 RH..............77 78 86 86 89 95 94 100 100 77 57 50 20 FT WIND......E 4 E 2 E 2 SE 2 S 2 SW 2 W 2 W 3 W 4 NW 5 NW 5 NW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 900 600 400 400 400 600 900 1400 1800 2400 3000 TRANSPORT WIND..E 17 SE 15 S 13 SW 12 SW 13 W 16 W 20 NW 21 NW 21 NW 20 NW 21 NW 22 CHC OF PCPN (%).90 50 50 50 40 40 40 20 20 20 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 4 5 4 2 2 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...BOXELL REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130316.ROCKC.01/SGF