FNUS72 KFFC 171148
FWSFFC

SPOT FORECAST FOR TURKEY NECK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE RETURN FROM
GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.  ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE.  THIS WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH RICH MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA RH
VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE 25 PERCENT.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS WELL TODAY.  EVEN THOUGH FUEL MOISTURE
WAS LOW YESTERDAY...NO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

SITE SPECIFIC DISCUSSION...
WITH LITTLE TERRAIN I DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON
ASPECT.  ALL MODELS HAVE THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 5PM.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
UNTIL A WEDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TOMORROW.  A COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN THE AREA THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL TEMPERATURES
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS.  EXPECT RH TO BE HIGH IN THIS AREA ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE SITE RIGHT NOW AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE THERE AROUND 930 AM.  THESE CLOUDS WILL BE INTERMITTENT TODAY
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING.  WITH
LAKE OCONEE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BURN SITE...SOME LOCAL MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS IS POSSIBLE.  THE LAKE COULD ACT TO INCREASE RH DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANY EVAPORATION FROM THE LAKE.  THE MORE SUN...THE HIGHER THE RH COULD
BE FROM THE LAKE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH
                    LATER IN THE DAY.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-4800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 IN THE MORNING.
                    SOUTHWEST 10 TO 14 IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....54 LATE IN THE MORNING.
                    58 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........42     49     53     53
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............62     69     73     77
RH..............61     50     43     39
20 FT WIND......SW 7   SW 8   SW 9   SW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     20
DISPERSION IDX..16     52     48     55
LVORI...........2      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-500 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
LVORI...............3.

.MONDAY...

DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 51.
LVORI...............4.

$$
FORECASTER...GIBBS
REQUESTED BY...TIM KOLNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130317.TURKE.01/FFC