FNUS72 KFFC 172038 AAA FWSFFC SPOT FORECAST FOR TURKEY NECK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 438 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1115 EDT ON MARCH 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE STATE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA RH VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SITE SPECIFIC DISCUSSION... WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE LOWER...AND THUS RH VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER...THAN EARLIER FORECAST. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT VERY LOW CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WINDS TONIGHT BUT AS A WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT SETS UP FOR MONDAY... WINDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THAT STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS. CURRENT GRIDS KEEP THE WEDGE FRONT...THE WARM FRONT SEPARATING THE COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...RIGHT NEAR THE BURN SITE. IF THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH...WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST. IF THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE...WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LIGHTER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WINDS FOR MONDAY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THAT FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY MOVE IN AFTER NOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....56 DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE EVENING. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........78 75 87 88 80 81 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............71 70 65 62 60 58 RH..............47 51 62 70 74 78 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 6 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 5 DISPERSION IDX..57 6 5 5 5 3 LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 4 CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 23 TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 86. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........83 88 87 87 85 86 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............56 55 59 64 68 71 RH..............83 85 78 69 62 59 20 FT WIND......S 3 E 3 SE 5 SE 6 S 6 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 DISPERSION IDX..2 5 13 40 37 81 LVORI...........5 5 4 3 1 1 CWR.............20 30 40 40 50 50 $$ FORECASTER...PALMER REQUESTED BY...MIKE DAVIS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130317.TURKE.02/FFC