FNUS72 KILM 181143 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR LAWA 3-18-2013...NC STATE PARKS-LAWA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 743 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MID WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WET WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. BROTAK WIND PROFILE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY NOON AT 5 TO 8 MPH THEN SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600-4700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 17 MPH. MAX ADI.............53. MAX LVORI...........10. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-47035 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (64629-83030 MPH-FT) LATE. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............95 84 67 62 WEATHER COV.........S CHC ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........RAIN NONE NONE RNSHWR TSTM COV............ ISOLTD TEMP................55 63 68 71 RH..................82 66 59 56 20 FT WIND..........E 5 E 4 S 4 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 5 10 MIX HGT (FT)........1200 2600 4000 4600 TRANSPORT WIND......E 3 SE 8 S 12 S 17 LVORI...............5 3 1 1 ADI.................3 17 33 51 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...5 20 47 80 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. MAX ADI.............32. MAX LVORI...........9. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-40825 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............67 73 78 88 100 97 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD TEMP................69 65 61 60 60 60 RH..................60 70 83 92 93 95 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)........3200 300 300 300 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND......S 13 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 LVORI...............1 4 6 7 8 8 ADI.................32 1 1 1 1 1 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...41 0 0 0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-6000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 17 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX ADI.............76. MAX LVORI...........10. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-42780 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (63479-106949 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............95 92 64 43 21 17 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TSTM COV............ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD TEMP................58 58 61 65 67 68 RH..................100 100 79 61 49 39 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 5 W 6 NW 9 NW 8 NW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 20 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........300 300 1600 3200 4700 6000 TRANSPORT WIND......S 0 S 0 W 13 W 20 NW 18 NW 17 LVORI...............10 10 4 1 1 1 ADI.................1 1 14 49 55 59 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...0 0 21 63 86 107 $$ FORECASTER...BACON REQUESTED BY...JONATHAN SHORT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130318.LAWA3.01/ILM