FNUS72 KMLB 201037
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SP 07...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
637 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MARCH 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE PROPOSED
BURN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING
BOUNDARY ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WHEREAS WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING WIND DIRECTION AND TIMING TODAY AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE
EASILY DISCERNIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM. THE
SHIELD OF CLOUDS MOVING ONTO THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING MAY INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON...THUS
DECREASING STORM CHANCES.

AS THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT SO WILL OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. CLEARING...DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
                    ...BECOMING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MORNING WINDS...BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6
                    TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
                    INCREASING TO WEST AROUND 20 MPH VERY LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....29.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............68  72  76  78  79  81  81  80  80  78  75  73
RH..............84  73  66  62  58  54  54  54  54  58  62  66
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..6   7   9   10  10  12  12  12  12  10  9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.        10              15  15  15      10  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....15.
LVORI...............4.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 17 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....39.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...DYLAN GAVAGNI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130320.SP07_.01/MLB