FNUS71 KRNK 210228 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR HOOVER CREEK FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1028 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2212 EDT ON MARCH 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THAT COULD BRIEFLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES MAKING IT EAST INTO THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF WESTERN VIRGINIA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY AND BE WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY STRONG...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM BRINGING HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DESPITE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE FOR FIRE CONTROL PROBLEMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HENCE GREATLY REDUCED FIRE DANGER. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT... THEN SCATTERED FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 20. MAX HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............75 78 84 88 79 63 55 WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCT SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........SW SW SW SW SW SW TSTM COV............ TEMP................32 31 30 29 28 27 26 RH..................56 55 53 50 51 53 55 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......6 6 7 7 8 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT).......3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....28 25 25 25 25 24 24 CWR.................20 20 10 10 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX........3 3 2 2 2 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN SCATTERED FLURRIES DUIRING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 29. MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............60 69 74 73 71 75 73 72 69 67 64 65 WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCT SCH SCH SCH SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE........SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TSTM COV............ TEMP................25 23 21 22 24 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 RH..................56 57 60 55 49 45 42 40 38 37 36 36 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W 20 FT WIND SPD......7 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 15 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 20 EYE LVL WND DIR.....NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W EYE LVL WND SPD.....5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 EYE LVL WND GST.....20 20 15 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 20 MIX HGT (KFT).......3.6 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.1 5.8 5.4 5.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....24 24 25 25 26 28 28 29 29 30 30 29 CWR.................20 20 10 20 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...BEASLEY REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130320.HOOVE.01/RNK