FNUS75 KPUB 211335
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR FT  CARSON PILES...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
735 AM MDT THU MAR 21 2013

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE BURN AREA TODAY.  THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS THAT IT KICKS UP.  BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES THE EASTERN PLAINS.
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH.  IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS
NOT RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT PRETTY CLOSE.  ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
SHOULD BE SUSPENDED UNTIL THESE WINDS SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BURN AREA.  WINDS WILL
START OUT GUSTY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN
SHIFT AROUND TO EAST AND BECOME LIGHTER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO GOOD RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
IN.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOUT 20 PERCENT HIGHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE RATHER BRISK...COMING OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    POSSIBLE AFTER 1000 UNTIL 1200...THEN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    40 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45 PERCENT). AN ISOLATED SHOWER
                    OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30F.
MAX HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 14-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    32 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE 5-10
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN 2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN SOUTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD UNTIL
                    2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1900...THEN 1.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT). AN ISOLATED SHOWER
                    POSSIBLE AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44F.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
                    10-20 MPH 1000-1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. FAIR AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...ANDY CULLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130321.FTCAR.01/PUB