FNUS73 KJKL 221126 AAA FWSJKL SPOT FORECAST FOR TIPRELL A B...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 726 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ***UPDATED*** ...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY FAIR SMOKE DISPERSION... .DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HELP TO KEEP THE WINDS ALOFT STIRRED AND THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN SMOKE DISPERSAL AND VENTING. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS NOT MATERIALIZE THE VENTING AND DISPERSION MAY BE RATHER LIMITED. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT AROUND 5 MPH... SWITCHING TO THE WEST TOWARD EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND CROSSES INTO KENTUCKY LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS COULD BECOME A LARGER STORM SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ON SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE EVENING. SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. POP.................30 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4 TO 7 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....20 TO 25. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........28 37 41 51 64 WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP............24 30 36 41 43 RH..............58 44 31 28 33 20 FT WIND DIR..SE S SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 RIDGETOP WIND...SE 5 S 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 1 SE 2 SW 3 SW 5 SW 6 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. SURROUNDING RIDGE...NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. POP.................40 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........74 79 86 92 93 94 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............43 41 39 37 36 35 RH..............43 52 60 67 75 80 20 FT WIND DIR..W S SE SE E NE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 RIDGETOP WIND...W 5 S 5 SE 5 SE 5 E 5 NE 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.2 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7 SW 6 SW 2 S 1 S 1 S 1 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT. SURROUNDING RIDGE...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. POP.................30 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400 FT AGL IN THE EARLY EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT. DISPERSION INDEX....21. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........95 93 90 89 84 79 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............34 36 40 44 49 51 RH..............84 89 81 66 57 56 20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 5 7 6 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 5 RIDGETOP WIND...NE 5 E 5 E 5 E 10 E 10 E 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 E 1 E 3 NE 6 NE 6 NE 8 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...GREIF REQUESTED BY...CODY EVANS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130322.TIPRE.01/JKL