FNUS75 KBOU 251703 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY LAKE RX...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 1102 AM MDT MON MAR 25 2013 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DECREASING TRANSPORT WINDS BY THE EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO UPSLOPE UPSLOPE BY 1200. DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE FAIRLY STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS. THE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE EARLY THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME UPSLOPE DURING THE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....23-27. MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6900-7900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-25 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD. FAIR AFTER 1700. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....8-12 ABOVE. MAX HUMIDITY........58-63%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 9-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-38. MIN HUMIDITY........39-43%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 8-9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5300-6300 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 7400-8400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 5400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-30 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 30-35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LILY LAKE RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/25-10 48 8 2 17 48 WNW 7 7 3 1 NNW 52 6089 NNW 23115591 V 03/25-11 48 8 2 19 44 NW 5 5 2 1 NNW 48 7409 NNW 21125001 V 03/25-12 41 8 2 22 39 NW 3 3 2 1 NNW 46 8730 NNW 17134411 V 03/25-13 41 8 2 24 38 WNW 2 2 2 1 NNW 44 8585 NNW 15116206 V 03/25-14 41 8 2 25 38 CALM 1 2 1 NNW 41 8440 NW 14 98001 G 03/25-15 41 8 2 24 42 CALM 1 2 1 NNW 40 8294 NW 12 79796 G 03/25-16 41 8 2 23 43 CALM 1 2 1 NNW 39 7348 WNW 10 69610 G 03/25-17 41 8 2 21 46 CALM 1 2 1 NW 38 6402 WNW 10 59425 F 03/25-18 27 1 0 18 51 WSW 2 2 2 1 NW 37 5457 W 10 49239 F 03/25-19 27 1 0 16 55 WSW 3 3 2 1 NW 35 3974 W 9 35088 P 03/25-20 27 1 0 14 58 W 5 5 2 1 NW 32 2492 W 8 20938 P 03/25-21 27 1 0 12 61 W 6 6 2 1 NW 30 1010 W 8 6787 P 03/25-22 27 1 0 11 60 W 7 7 3 1 NW 29 820 W 9 6092 P 03/25-23 27 1 0 9 62 W 9 15 4 1 NW 29 630 W 10 5396 P 03/26-00 18 0 0 8 63 W 10 16 4 1 NW 29 440 W 13 4701 P 03/26-01 18 0 0 11 56 W 12 18 4 1 NW 31 654 W 13 7619 P 03/26-02 18 0 0 12 55 W 12 18 3 1 NW 35 868 W 14 10538 P 03/26-03 18 0 0 13 53 W 12 18 2 1 NW 38 1082 W 14 13456 P 03/26-04 18 0 0 13 50 W 12 17 2 1 NW 39 861 W 14 10798 P 03/26-05 18 0 0 13 47 W 10 16 2 1 NW 41 639 W 15 8140 P 03/26-06 34 4 1 10 52 W 9 14 2 1 NW 45 418 W 15 5482 P 03/26-07 34 4 1 13 51 W 9 9 2 1 NW 51 779 W 16 11518 P 03/26-08 34 4 1 16 49 W 8 8 2 1 NW 58 1140 W 17 17555 P 03/26-09 44 4 1 21 45 W 8 8 2 1 NW 63 1500 W 18 23592 P 03/26-10 44 4 1 25 45 W 8 8 2 1 WNW 62 2967 W 24 77544 G 03/26-11 44 4 1 30 43 WSW 8 8 2 1 WNW 60 4434 W 30131496 V 03/26-12 65 20 4 33 43 WSW 8 8 2 1 WNW 56 5901 WNW 36185449 E 03/26-13 65 20 4 36 41 WSW 9 9 2 1 WNW 56 6834 W 36211534 E 03/26-14 65 20 4 38 39 W 9 15 3 1 W 56 7767 W 36237619 E 03/26-15 65 20 4 38 39 W 10 16 3 1 W 56 8699 W 35263705 E 03/26-16 65 20 4 37 40 W 10 15 3 1 W 58 7067 W 32204065 E 03/26-17 65 20 4 34 44 W 9 15 3 1 W 58 5434 W 29144425 V 03/26-18 68 26 6 32 47 W 9 14 3 1 W 56 3801 W 25 84785 G 03/26-19 68 26 6 30 51 W 9 9 3 1 W 53 3475 W 24 74838 G 03/26-20 68 26 6 29 54 W 8 8 3 1 W 47 3149 W 23 64892 G 03/26-21 68 26 6 29 54 W 8 8 3 1 W 44 2823 W 22 54946 F 03/26-22 68 26 6 28 57 W 7 7 3 1 W 43 2514 W 20 43365 F 03/26-23 68 26 6 27 60 WNW 6 6 3 1 W 43 2204 W 16 31784 P 03/27-00 58 26 6 27 60 WNW 5 5 3 1 W 43 1894 W 13 20204 P 03/27-01 58 26 6 27 61 WNW 5 5 3 1 W 43 1771 W 10 16985 P 03/27-02 58 26 6 27 61 WNW 5 5 3 1 W 43 1648 W 9 13767 P 03/27-03 58 26 6 26 65 WNW 5 5 3 1 W 43 1525 W 8 10549 P 03/27-04 58 26 6 25 68 NW 5 5 3 1 W 44 1467 W 8 10804 P 03/27-05 58 26 6 25 70 NW 6 6 3 1 W 44 1409 WNW 9 11059 P 03/27-06 58 19 4 25 71 NW 6 6 3 1 W 45 1351 WNW 9 11314 P 03/27-07 58 19 4 26 71 NW 5 5 3 1 W 46 2774 WNW 13 39979 P 03/27-08 58 19 4 28 68 NNW 3 3 3 1 W 46 4197 WNW 16 68645 G 03/27-09 58 19 4 30 65 NNW 2 2 3 1 W 45 5620 WNW 20 97311 G 03/27-10 58 19 4 32 62 NW 3 3 3 1 WNW 38 6339 WNW 21111979 V 03/27-11 58 19 4 34 60 WSW 6 6 2 1 WNW 31 7058 WNW 21126647 V 03/27-12 53 19 4 36 56 SSW 7 7 2 1 WNW 25 7777 W 21141315 V 03/27-13 53 19 4 37 55 SSW 7 7 2 1 WNW 25 7785 W 21138289 V 03/27-14 53 19 4 37 55 SW 7 7 2 1 W 28 7793 W 20135263 V 03/27-15 53 19 4 37 55 WSW 7 7 2 1 W 30 7801 W 20132237 V 03/27-16 53 19 4 35 60 W 7 7 2 1 W 32 7035 W 20117102 V 03/27-17 53 19 4 34 62 W 6 6 2 1 W 33 6268 W 18101968 V 03/27-18 52 12 2 31 69 WNW 6 6 2 1 W 35 5501 W 18 86833 G 03/27-19 52 12 2 29 74 WNW 6 6 2 1 W 37 3832 W 15 58989 F 03/27-20 52 12 2 28 76 WNW 6 6 3 1 W 39 2163 W 12 31145 P 03/27-21 52 12 2 26 81 WNW 6 6 3 1 W 39 494 W 8 3301 P 03/27-22 52 12 2 25 83 WNW 6 6 3 1 W 38 439 W 8 2915 P 03/27-23 52 12 2 24 85 WNW 5 5 3 1 W 37 384 W 8 2529 P 03/28-00 37 6 1 23 88 WNW 5 5 3 1 W 36 330 W 8 2143 P 03/28-01 37 6 1 23 87 WNW 5 5 3 1 W 35 332 W 8 2199 P 03/28-02 37 6 1 23 87 WNW 6 6 3 1 W 33 335 W 8 2255 P 03/28-03 37 6 1 23 87 W 6 6 3 1 W 33 338 W 8 2311 P 03/28-04 37 6 1 22 91 W 7 7 3 1 W 33 339 W 8 2386 P 03/28-05 37 6 1 22 91 W 8 8 3 1 W 32 340 W 8 2461 P 03/28-06 35 6 1 23 88 W 8 8 3 1 W 32 340 W 8 2537 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI REQUESTED BY...JEFF SINGER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130325.LILYL.01/BOU