FNUS75 KBOU 261056 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR LAKE PILES...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 454 AM MDT TUE MAR 26 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON MARCH 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION....MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY TONIGHT. THE BURN SITE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND A WARMER AIRMASS TO THE WEST...AND A COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME...THE WESTERLIES AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO WIN OUT TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF WEAK UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WITH LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44. MIN HUMIDITY........30-33%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 3400-4400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN BECOMING GOOD BY 1000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 23. MAX HUMIDITY........74%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 2200. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................15 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MIN HUMIDITY........43%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 5900-6900 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN AROUND 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR LAKE PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/26-04 27 0 0 9 69 W 10 17 2 1 NW 45 324 W 12 3226 P 03/26-05 27 0 0 10 65 W 12 17 2 1 NW 46 302 W 12 3126 P 03/26-06 37 6 1 12 60 W 12 18 2 1 WNW 47 279 W 13 3027 P 03/26-07 37 6 1 13 56 W 13 20 2 1 WNW 48 1358 W 15 31392 P 03/26-08 37 6 1 14 54 W 14 22 2 1 WNW 48 2438 W 18 59757 F 03/26-09 49 6 1 20 45 W 14 22 2 1 WNW 47 3517 W 21 58899 F 03/26-10 49 6 1 26 41 W 13 21 2 1 WNW 47 3860 W 21 70871 G 03/26-11 49 6 1 32 38 W 12 18 2 1 WNW 47 4202 W 22 82843 G 03/26-12 67 15 3 37 37 W 10 16 2 1 WNW 46 4545 W 22 94815 G 03/26-13 67 15 3 41 35 W 10 17 2 1 WNW 47 4493 W 22 98050 G 03/26-14 67 15 3 44 33 W 12 20 2 1 WNW 48 4440 W 21101286 V 03/26-15 72 23 5 44 33 W 13 21 3 1 W 49 4388 W 21104521 V 03/26-16 72 23 5 42 37 W 13 20 3 1 W 51 4238 W 20 91088 G 03/26-17 72 23 5 39 41 W 12 18 3 1 W 52 4089 W 20 77656 G 03/26-18 78 32 11 35 47 W 10 16 3 1 W 52 3939 W 18 64223 G 03/26-19 78 32 11 33 51 W 9 15 3 1 W 51 3499 W 17 53865 F 03/26-20 78 32 11 31 56 W 9 14 3 1 W 49 3058 W 16 43506 F 03/26-21 78 32 11 29 60 W 8 13 3 1 W 47 2618 W 15 33147 P 03/26-22 78 32 11 28 62 W 8 13 3 1 W 45 2107 W 13 25085 P 03/26-23 78 32 11 27 64 W 8 13 3 1 W 43 1596 WSW 12 17023 P 03/27-00 78 34 13 26 65 W 8 13 3 1 W 40 1085 WSW 9 8960 P 03/27-01 78 34 13 26 65 W 7 7 3 1 W 40 1046 WSW 9 8382 P 03/27-02 78 34 13 26 65 W 7 7 3 1 W 40 1007 W 9 7803 P 03/27-03 78 34 13 25 68 WNW 6 6 3 1 W 40 968 W 8 7224 P 03/27-04 78 34 13 24 71 WNW 5 5 3 1 WNW 40 929 W 8 6645 P 03/27-05 78 34 13 23 74 WNW 3 3 3 1 WNW 40 889 W 8 6067 P 03/27-06 55 27 7 23 74 NW 3 3 3 1 WNW 40 850 W 7 5488 P 03/27-07 55 27 7 25 69 WNW 3 3 3 1 WNW 39 1475 W 8 10950 P 03/27-08 55 27 7 27 64 W 3 3 2 1 WNW 37 2100 W 8 16413 P 03/27-09 55 27 7 29 60 W 5 5 2 1 WNW 36 2725 W 9 21875 P 03/27-10 55 27 7 32 55 W 6 6 2 1 WNW 36 3908 W 13 49950 F 03/27-11 55 27 7 35 50 W 7 7 2 1 WNW 35 5091 W 16 78026 G 03/27-12 57 24 5 37 48 W 8 13 2 1 WNW 35 6274 W 20106101 V 03/27-13 57 24 5 39 45 W 9 14 2 1 WNW 36 6655 W 21117084 V 03/27-14 57 24 5 40 43 W 9 15 2 1 W 37 7036 W 21128067 V 03/27-15 57 24 5 40 43 W 9 15 2 1 W 39 7418 W 22139050 V 03/27-16 57 24 5 39 45 W 9 14 2 1 W 41 6578 W 22122689 V 03/27-17 57 24 5 36 50 W 8 13 2 1 W 43 5738 W 21106329 V 03/27-18 55 11 2 34 54 W 7 7 2 1 W 44 4898 W 21 89969 G 03/27-19 55 11 2 31 60 W 6 6 2 1 W 43 3713 W 17 64046 G 03/27-20 55 11 2 29 65 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 41 2528 W 14 38123 P 03/27-21 55 11 2 27 70 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 39 1342 W 10 12200 P 03/27-22 55 11 2 25 76 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 38 1142 W 10 10317 P 03/27-23 55 11 2 25 75 WSW 7 7 3 1 W 38 941 W 10 8433 P 03/28-00 50 6 1 25 74 W 7 7 3 1 W 37 740 W 10 6549 P 03/28-01 50 6 1 25 73 W 7 7 3 1 W 38 602 W 10 5434 P 03/28-02 50 6 1 25 72 W 8 13 3 1 W 40 464 W 12 4319 P 03/28-03 50 6 1 25 70 W 8 13 3 1 W 40 325 W 12 3204 P 03/28-04 50 6 1 24 72 W 8 14 3 1 W 38 352 W 12 3616 P 03/28-05 50 6 1 24 71 W 9 15 3 1 W 36 378 W 13 4028 P 03/28-06 50 7 1 25 68 W 9 15 3 1 W 32 405 W 13 4440 P 03/28-07 50 7 1 27 64 W 9 15 3 1 W 30 1121 W 15 16346 P 03/28-08 50 7 1 30 58 W 8 14 3 1 W 28 1837 W 16 28251 P 03/28-09 50 7 1 33 53 W 8 13 3 1 W 25 2553 W 18 40157 F 03/28-10 50 7 1 37 47 W 8 8 3 1 W 24 5016 W 18 81781 G 03/28-11 50 7 1 41 41 W 7 7 3 1 W 24 7479 W 18123404 V 03/28-12 60 10 2 44 38 W 7 7 3 1 W 25 9943 W 20165028 E 03/28-13 60 10 2 46 36 W 7 7 3 1 W 26 10230 WNW 18165415 E 03/28-14 60 10 2 47 35 W 7 7 3 1 W 29 10518 WNW 18165802 E 03/28-15 60 10 2 46 37 W 7 7 3 1 W 30 10806 WNW 17166189 E 03/28-16 60 10 2 44 41 W 7 7 3 1 W 31 9488 WNW 16138602 V 03/28-17 60 10 2 42 44 W 6 6 3 1 W 31 8170 WNW 15111015 V 03/28-18 56 7 1 38 52 W 6 6 3 1 W 31 6853 WNW 14 83428 G 03/28-19 56 7 1 35 59 W 6 6 3 1 W 29 4712 WNW 12 56284 F 03/28-20 56 7 1 32 66 W 5 5 3 1 WNW 28 2572 W 8 29140 P 03/28-21 56 7 1 30 72 W 5 5 3 1 WNW 25 431 W 6 1996 P 03/28-22 56 7 1 29 74 W 5 5 3 1 W 23 412 W 6 2084 P 03/28-23 56 7 1 28 76 W 5 5 3 1 W 22 393 W 7 2172 P 03/29-00 51 3 1 28 75 W 5 5 3 1 W 21 374 W 7 2260 P 03/29-01 51 3 1 28 72 W 5 5 3 1 W 20 365 W 8 2444 P 03/29-02 51 3 1 27 73 W 6 6 3 1 W 20 355 W 8 2628 P 03/29-03 51 3 1 27 70 W 7 7 3 1 W 20 346 W 9 2813 P 03/29-04 51 3 1 26 71 W 7 7 3 1 W 21 346 W 10 3073 P 03/29-05 51 3 1 25 72 W 8 13 3 1 W 22 346 W 12 3334 P 03/29-06 52 10 2 26 68 W 8 13 3 1 W 24 346 W 12 3594 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...JAMES CHAMP TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130326.BEARL.01/BOU