FNUS75 KBOU 261120 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY LAKE RX...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 516 AM MDT TUE MAR 26 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0535 MDT ON MARCH 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY TONIGHT. THE BURN SITE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND A WARMER AIRMASS TO THE WEST...AND A COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME...THE WESTERLIES AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO WIN OUT TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF WEAK UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WITH LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MIN HUMIDITY........33-37%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 4400-5100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN BECOMING GOOD BY 0900-1000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 23. MAX HUMIDITY........81%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN 1800-2800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN AROUND 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................20 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37. MIN HUMIDITY........46%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 6500-7500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN AROUND 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 8-9 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LILY LAKE RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/26-05 28 0 0 14 62 W 8 15 2 1 NW 46 1055 W 12 11122 P 03/26-06 37 4 1 14 61 W 8 15 2 1 NW 47 1184 W 13 12649 P 03/26-07 37 4 1 14 61 W 9 16 2 1 WNW 47 2247 W 15 41036 F 03/26-08 37 4 1 18 53 W 9 17 2 1 WNW 47 3310 W 17 69423 G 03/26-09 49 4 1 22 47 W 10 18 2 1 WNW 47 4373 W 20 65298 G 03/26-10 49 4 1 27 43 W 10 18 2 1 WNW 46 4602 W 20 76887 G 03/26-11 49 4 1 31 42 W 11 18 2 1 WNW 46 4830 W 20 88476 G 03/26-12 68 9 2 35 40 W 11 18 2 1 WNW 46 5059 W 20100065 V 03/26-13 68 9 2 38 38 W 12 20 2 1 WNW 47 5020 W 20104542 V 03/26-14 68 9 2 40 37 W 12 20 2 1 WNW 48 4981 W 20109020 V 03/26-15 75 19 4 40 37 W 12 20 3 1 W 49 4942 W 20113497 V 03/26-16 75 19 4 38 40 W 12 20 3 1 W 52 4799 W 20100123 V 03/26-17 75 19 4 36 43 W 12 18 3 1 W 52 4656 W 18 86749 G 03/26-18 83 48 24 33 47 W 12 18 3 1 W 53 4513 W 18 73374 G 03/26-19 83 48 24 31 52 W 10 16 3 1 W 52 4172 W 17 62960 G 03/26-20 83 48 24 29 57 W 9 15 3 1 W 49 3832 W 17 52547 F 03/26-21 83 48 24 28 60 WNW 8 13 3 1 W 47 3491 W 16 42133 F 03/26-22 83 48 24 27 63 WNW 8 13 3 1 W 44 3130 W 15 35915 P 03/26-23 83 48 24 26 65 WNW 9 14 3 1 W 41 2770 W 13 29697 P 03/27-00 83 48 24 26 65 W 9 15 3 1 W 39 2409 W 12 23479 P 03/27-01 83 48 24 25 69 WNW 9 14 3 1 W 39 2261 W 10 21237 P 03/27-02 83 48 24 25 70 NW 8 13 3 1 W 39 2114 W 10 18995 P 03/27-03 83 48 24 25 71 NW 7 7 3 1 WNW 39 1966 W 9 16753 P 03/27-04 83 48 24 24 76 NW 6 6 3 1 WNW 39 1818 W 9 14511 P 03/27-05 83 48 24 23 80 NNW 6 6 3 1 WNW 39 1671 W 8 12269 P 03/27-06 52 26 6 23 81 NNW 5 5 3 1 WNW 39 1523 W 8 10027 P 03/27-07 52 26 6 24 78 NW 5 5 3 1 WNW 38 2455 W 9 22268 P 03/27-08 52 26 6 26 72 WNW 5 5 2 1 WNW 38 3387 W 12 34509 P 03/27-09 52 26 6 28 66 W 5 5 2 1 WNW 37 4319 W 13 46750 F 03/27-10 52 26 6 31 58 W 5 5 2 1 WNW 36 5136 W 15 68383 G 03/27-11 52 26 6 33 54 W 6 6 2 1 WNW 36 5954 W 17 90016 G 03/27-12 57 24 5 35 50 WSW 6 6 2 1 WNW 35 6772 W 18111649 V 03/27-13 57 24 5 36 48 WSW 6 6 2 1 WNW 36 7097 W 20118752 V 03/27-14 57 24 5 37 46 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 38 7422 W 20125854 V 03/27-15 57 24 5 37 46 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 39 7748 W 20132957 V 03/27-16 57 24 5 36 48 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 41 7250 W 21128220 V 03/27-17 57 24 5 34 52 W 6 6 2 1 W 43 6752 W 21123484 V 03/27-18 53 11 2 33 54 W 6 6 2 1 W 43 6254 W 22118747 V 03/27-19 53 11 2 31 58 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 41 4375 W 17 80781 G 03/27-20 53 11 2 29 62 WSW 7 7 2 1 W 40 2496 W 14 42814 F 03/27-21 53 11 2 27 67 WSW 7 7 2 1 W 39 617 WSW 9 4848 P 03/27-22 53 11 2 27 67 WSW 7 7 2 1 W 38 554 WSW 9 4423 P 03/27-23 53 11 2 26 69 WSW 8 8 3 1 W 37 491 WSW 9 3998 P 03/28-00 47 6 1 26 68 W 8 13 3 1 W 37 428 WSW 9 3572 P 03/28-01 47 6 1 26 68 W 9 14 3 1 W 38 427 W 10 3818 P 03/28-02 47 6 1 26 67 W 9 15 3 1 W 39 426 W 12 4065 P 03/28-03 47 6 1 26 66 W 10 16 3 1 W 39 425 W 12 4311 P 03/28-04 47 6 1 25 68 W 12 17 3 1 W 37 310 W 12 3170 P 03/28-05 47 6 1 25 68 W 12 18 3 1 W 35 196 W 13 2030 P 03/28-06 47 10 2 25 68 W 12 18 3 1 W 31 81 W 13 889 P 03/28-07 47 10 2 27 64 W 10 17 3 1 W 29 1905 W 16 34974 P 03/28-08 47 10 2 30 57 W 9 15 3 1 W 26 3728 WNW 18 69058 G 03/28-09 47 10 2 34 50 W 8 13 3 1 W 24 5552 WNW 22103143 V 03/28-10 47 10 2 37 45 W 7 7 3 1 W 24 7637 WNW 20129018 V 03/28-11 47 10 2 40 41 W 7 7 3 1 W 24 9722 WNW 18154893 E 03/28-12 60 12 2 43 38 W 6 6 3 1 W 24 11808 WNW 17180768 E 03/28-13 60 12 2 44 37 W 6 6 3 1 W 25 12017 WNW 17181106 E 03/28-14 60 12 2 45 36 W 5 5 3 1 W 28 12226 WNW 17181445 E 03/28-15 60 12 2 45 37 W 5 5 3 1 W 29 12436 WNW 17181784 E 03/28-16 60 12 2 43 40 W 5 5 3 1 W 30 10943 WNW 15150615 E 03/28-17 60 12 2 40 46 W 3 3 3 1 W 30 9450 WNW 14119446 V 03/28-18 55 10 2 37 52 W 3 3 3 1 W 30 7958 WNW 13 88276 G 03/28-19 55 10 2 35 57 W 3 3 3 1 W 29 5501 W 10 59589 F 03/28-20 55 10 2 32 66 W 3 3 3 1 WNW 28 3044 W 7 30901 P 03/28-21 55 10 2 30 73 W 3 3 3 1 WNW 25 588 W 5 2213 P 03/28-22 55 10 2 29 77 W 3 3 3 1 W 24 546 W 5 2317 P 03/28-23 55 10 2 29 78 W 5 5 3 1 W 23 505 W 6 2422 P 03/29-00 51 5 1 28 81 W 5 5 3 1 W 22 463 W 6 2526 P 03/29-01 51 5 1 28 80 W 6 6 3 1 W 21 449 W 7 2740 P 03/29-02 51 5 1 28 79 W 6 6 3 1 W 20 434 W 8 2953 P 03/29-03 51 5 1 27 81 W 7 7 3 1 W 20 419 W 9 3167 P 03/29-04 51 5 1 27 79 W 7 7 3 1 W 21 419 W 9 3421 P 03/29-05 51 5 1 26 82 W 8 13 3 1 W 22 419 W 10 3676 P 03/29-06 52 18 4 26 81 W 8 13 3 1 W 23 419 W 10 3930 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...JEFF SINGER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130326.LILYL.02/BOU