FNUS75 KBOU 271447 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR LAKE PILES...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 846 AM MDT WED MAR 27 2013 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DECREASING. SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...SMOKE DISPERSION WILL BE ADEQUATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BRISK TRANSPORT WINDS AND FAIRLY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING...THE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LOWER WITH LIMITING SMOKE DISPERSION. ON THURSDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS BUILDUPS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEARBY PEAKS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SITE AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-45. MIN HUMIDITY........37-41%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. GOOD BY 1200 THEN VERY GOOD AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-27. MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 5-12 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-4700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL BY 2100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-49. MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 2300-3300 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6600-7600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 10300-11300 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 8000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR LAKE PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/27-08 72 26 9 28 68 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 35 2155 W 14 26587 P 03/27-09 50 7 1 31 61 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 32 2997 WNW 15 37620 P 03/27-10 50 7 1 34 54 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 33 3787 WNW 16 54957 F 03/27-11 50 7 1 38 46 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 36 4577 WNW 18 72294 G 03/27-12 50 7 1 40 42 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 38 5367 W 20 89631 G 03/27-13 50 24 5 43 38 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 37 5792 W 20 99982 G 03/27-14 50 24 5 44 37 W 9 9 3 1 W 36 6216 W 21110332 V 03/27-15 57 24 5 44 38 W 9 14 3 1 W 35 6641 W 21120683 V 03/27-16 57 24 5 42 42 W 9 9 3 1 W 36 6058 W 21110850 V 03/27-17 57 24 5 39 48 W 8 8 2 1 W 37 5475 W 22101018 V 03/27-18 55 11 2 36 54 W 8 8 2 1 W 38 4892 W 22 91185 G 03/27-19 55 11 2 34 58 W 8 8 2 1 W 38 3501 W 17 62804 G 03/27-20 55 11 2 32 62 WSW 7 7 2 1 W 38 2109 W 14 34422 P 03/27-21 24 6 1 30 66 WSW 7 7 2 1 WNW 38 718 WSW 9 6040 P 03/27-22 24 6 1 28 70 WSW 7 7 2 1 W 36 600 WSW 10 5563 P 03/27-23 24 6 1 27 72 W 8 8 3 1 W 33 482 W 12 4577 P 03/28-00 24 6 1 26 74 W 8 8 3 1 W 31 364 W 12 3590 P 03/28-01 24 6 1 26 75 W 8 8 3 1 W 30 354 W 10 3337 P 03/28-02 24 6 1 26 75 W 8 8 3 1 W 31 344 W 10 3084 P 03/28-03 30 6 1 26 74 W 8 8 3 1 W 31 334 W 9 2832 P 03/28-04 30 6 1 25 74 W 8 8 3 1 W 35 332 W 9 2644 P 03/28-05 30 6 1 25 71 W 8 8 3 1 W 37 331 W 8 2456 P 03/28-06 51 9 2 26 65 W 8 8 3 1 W 37 329 W 8 2268 P 03/28-07 51 9 2 28 60 W 8 8 3 1 W 35 1517 W 10 17592 P 03/28-08 51 9 2 31 54 W 7 7 3 1 W 31 2705 W 13 32916 P 03/28-09 51 9 2 35 47 W 7 7 3 1 W 29 3894 W 14 48240 F 03/28-10 51 9 2 39 42 W 7 7 3 1 W 30 5974 W 16 85549 G 03/28-11 51 9 2 42 39 W 7 7 3 1 W 35 8054 W 17122857 V 03/28-12 65 10 2 45 37 W 7 7 3 1 W 37 10134 W 18160166 E 03/28-13 65 10 2 47 35 W 7 7 3 1 W 38 10709 W 18167924 E 03/28-14 65 10 2 48 34 W 8 13 3 1 W 39 11284 W 18175683 E 03/28-15 65 10 2 48 35 W 8 13 3 1 W 38 11860 W 17183441 E 03/28-16 65 10 2 46 38 W 7 7 3 1 W 36 9952 W 16146877 V 03/28-17 65 10 2 43 43 W 7 7 3 1 W 33 8045 W 15110313 V 03/28-18 63 9 2 40 48 W 6 6 3 1 W 31 6137 W 14 73750 G 03/28-19 63 9 2 37 54 W 6 6 3 1 W 29 4241 W 12 50075 F 03/28-20 63 9 2 34 61 W 6 6 3 1 W 26 2345 W 9 26400 P 03/28-21 63 9 2 32 66 W 6 6 3 1 W 25 448 W 7 2725 P 03/28-22 63 9 2 31 68 W 6 6 3 1 W 25 427 WSW 8 2781 P 03/28-23 63 9 2 30 70 W 6 6 3 1 W 24 405 WSW 8 2837 P 03/29-00 51 3 1 30 69 W 6 6 3 1 W 24 383 WSW 9 2893 P 03/29-01 51 3 1 29 69 W 7 7 3 1 W 24 379 WSW 9 3117 P 03/29-02 51 3 1 29 67 W 7 7 3 1 W 24 375 W 10 3341 P 03/29-03 51 3 1 29 65 W 8 13 3 1 W 24 371 W 12 3565 P 03/29-04 51 3 1 28 65 W 8 14 3 1 W 23 372 W 12 3894 P 03/29-05 51 3 1 27 66 W 9 14 3 1 W 22 372 W 13 4223 P 03/29-06 55 12 2 27 66 W 9 15 3 1 W 21 373 W 14 4553 P 03/29-07 55 12 2 29 61 W 9 15 3 1 W 21 1196 W 15 15911 P 03/29-08 55 12 2 32 56 W 9 15 3 1 W 21 2019 W 15 27270 P 03/29-09 55 12 2 36 49 W 9 15 3 1 W 21 2842 W 16 38629 P 03/29-10 55 12 2 40 44 W 8 14 3 1 W 21 4981 W 17 84564 G 03/29-11 55 12 2 43 41 W 7 7 3 1 W 22 7120 W 20130499 V 03/29-12 67 21 4 46 38 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 23 9259 WNW 22176434 E 03/29-13 67 21 4 48 37 W 8 13 3 1 WNW 24 10011 WNW 22194485 E 03/29-14 67 21 4 49 37 W 9 15 3 1 W 26 10763 W 23212535 E 03/29-15 67 21 4 49 38 W 10 16 3 1 W 28 11515 W 23230586 E 03/29-16 67 21 4 47 42 W 10 16 3 1 W 29 9552 W 24196883 E 03/29-17 67 21 4 44 48 W 9 15 3 1 WNW 30 7589 W 25163181 E 03/29-18 67 17 3 41 55 W 8 13 3 1 WNW 30 5627 W 26129479 V 03/29-19 67 17 3 38 61 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 29 4154 W 23 92426 G 03/29-20 67 17 3 35 68 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 26 2682 W 21 55374 F 03/29-21 67 17 3 33 72 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 25 1209 W 17 18322 P 03/29-22 67 17 3 31 76 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 24 972 W 17 14623 P 03/29-23 67 17 3 31 74 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 23 735 W 17 10925 P 03/30-00 57 17 3 30 75 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 23 497 W 17 7226 P 03/30-01 57 17 3 30 74 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 24 507 W 17 7673 P 03/30-02 57 17 3 30 73 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 25 516 W 18 8119 P 03/30-03 57 17 3 29 75 W 8 13 3 1 WNW 26 526 W 18 8565 P 03/30-04 57 17 3 28 78 W 8 14 3 1 WNW 29 788 W 20 13660 P 03/30-05 57 17 3 27 81 W 9 14 3 1 WNW 33 1051 W 21 18754 P 03/30-06 64 19 4 27 81 W 9 15 3 1 WNW 37 1314 W 21 23848 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI REQUESTED BY...JAMES CHAMP TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130327.BEARL.01/BOU