FNUS73 KGID 271508
FWSGID

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELM CREEK COMPLEX...PRRIP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1008 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE OUTLOOK AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
SHIFTED THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WHICH RESULTED IN SOME SPRINKLES
TO LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL
CREATE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES AROUND 5 TO 10 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR THE BURN SITE WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 1000 FT AGL THIS MORNING TO 4100 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.  RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 PERCENT THIS MORNING TO NEAR 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48 AT 4 PM.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT AT 4 PM.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR 600 FT AGL THIS MORNING INCREASING TO NEAR 4100
                    FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26 AT 7 AM.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT AT 7 AM.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR 3700 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO NEAR
                    300 FT AGL BY 7 AM.
TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST AROUND 4 MPH.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55 AT 4 PM.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT AT 4 PM.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR 300 FT AGL AT 7 AM INCREASING TO NEAR 5300
                    FT AGL BY 4 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 7 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
8 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
.MONDAY...MUCH COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

$$
FORECASTER...NWS
REQUESTED BY...MARK MASTERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130327.ELMCR.01/GID