FNUS73 KPAH 271212 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR OPEN HOLLOW...MISSOURI DEPT OF CONSERVATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 712 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... COMPARED TO THE SUTTON CREEK PRESCRIBED BURN SITE...THE OPEN HOLLOW PRESCRIBED BURN WILL BE DEALING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. TWENTY FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY MARGINAL FOR DISPERSION OF SMOKE...AS THE ORIENTATION OF GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 45 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 2 PM AND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AS WITH THE SUTTON CREEK SITE...FUEL MOISTURES FOR RAWS SITES FURTHER TO THE EAST HAVE BEEN DIPPING DOWN TO NEAR 10 OR 11 PERCENT AROUND IGNITION TIME. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME BURNING OF GRASSES... BUT ANY LONGER TERM FUELS WILL BE ENCOUNTER POOR IGNITION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WILL NOT LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) AT IGNITION. TEMPERATURE.........35 AT IGNITION...MAX 45. RH..................59 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 8 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............35 38 41 43 44 44 44 44 RH..............59 58 54 52 52 54 56 59 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W SW SW SW SW S TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34. RH..................MAX 91 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 29 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-3300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 14 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN RN RN RN RN TEMP............42 41 40 39 38 37 37 37 36 36 36 35 RH..............65 69 75 78 79 82 82 84 85 82 82 85 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE E E E SE SE SE E E E SE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 14 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SUSAN FARRINGTON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130327.OPENH.01/PAH