FNUS75 KBOU 281104 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY LAKE RX...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 459 AM MDT THU MAR 28 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON MARCH 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY WEAK DIURNAL WINDS TO PREVAIL AT THE BURN SITE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARM ENOUGH TO PROVIDE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MIN HUMIDITY........33-37%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0900... THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...INCREASING TO 8400-9400 FT AGL BY 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31. MAX HUMIDITY........69%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50. MIN HUMIDITY........37%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 3300-4300 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 7400-8400 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 13100-14100 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 10700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 8-11 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 8-9 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LILY LAKE RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/28-04 33 6 1 26 68 W 6 6 3 1 W 36 376 W 6 1962 P 03/28-05 33 6 1 26 66 W 6 6 3 1 W 37 379 W 6 1817 P 03/28-06 36 4 1 27 63 W 6 6 3 1 W 37 383 W 5 1673 P 03/28-07 36 4 1 29 59 W 6 6 3 1 W 37 1335 W 7 11376 P 03/28-08 36 4 1 32 54 W 5 5 3 1 W 36 2288 W 9 21079 P 03/28-09 43 4 1 35 50 W 5 5 3 1 W 35 3240 W 12 30783 P 03/28-10 43 4 1 39 44 WSW 5 5 3 1 W 33 4784 W 13 52695 F 03/28-11 43 4 1 42 41 S 5 5 3 1 W 33 6327 W 13 74606 G 03/28-12 55 19 4 45 38 SSE 6 6 3 1 W 33 7871 W 14 96518 G 03/28-13 55 19 4 46 38 SSE 7 7 3 1 W 33 8471 W 14100343 V 03/28-14 55 19 4 47 37 SSE 8 8 3 1 W 33 9071 W 13104167 V 03/28-15 65 21 4 47 37 SSE 8 8 3 1 W 33 9671 W 13107992 V 03/28-16 65 21 4 45 39 S 8 8 3 1 W 33 9030 W 13100834 V 03/28-17 65 21 4 44 40 S 7 7 3 1 W 32 8389 W 13 93677 G 03/28-18 65 12 2 41 44 S 7 7 3 1 W 31 7748 W 13 86520 G 03/28-19 65 12 2 39 49 SSW 7 7 3 1 W 29 5861 W 12 62547 G 03/28-20 65 12 2 37 55 WSW 6 6 3 1 W 28 3973 WSW 9 38574 P 03/28-21 65 2 0 35 61 W 6 6 3 1 W 26 2086 WSW 8 14602 P 03/28-22 65 2 0 34 64 W 6 6 3 1 W 24 1581 WSW 8 10909 P 03/28-23 65 2 0 33 67 W 6 6 3 1 W 24 1077 WSW 7 7216 P 03/29-00 50 2 0 32 69 W 6 6 3 1 W 24 572 WSW 7 3524 P 03/29-01 50 2 0 32 67 W 7 7 3 1 W 25 572 WSW 8 4041 P 03/29-02 50 2 0 32 65 W 7 7 3 1 W 26 571 WSW 9 4557 P 03/29-03 49 2 0 32 63 W 8 8 3 1 W 29 571 WSW 10 5074 P 03/29-04 49 2 0 31 65 W 8 8 3 1 W 31 612 W 10 5314 P 03/29-05 49 2 0 31 64 W 9 9 3 1 W 33 653 W 10 5553 P 03/29-06 53 20 4 32 61 W 9 15 3 1 W 33 695 W 9 5793 P 03/29-07 53 20 4 33 59 W 9 15 3 1 W 35 2755 W 13 43918 F 03/29-08 53 20 4 36 53 W 9 15 3 1 W 33 4815 W 16 82043 G 03/29-09 53 20 4 39 48 W 9 15 3 1 W 31 6875 W 20120167 V 03/29-10 53 20 4 42 45 W 8 14 3 1 W 29 8815 W 18132677 V 03/29-11 53 20 4 45 42 W 8 8 3 1 W 26 10754 W 16145187 V 03/29-12 66 29 8 47 40 W 7 7 3 1 W 24 12693 W 14157697 E 03/29-13 66 29 8 49 38 W 7 7 3 1 W 23 13444 W 14164035 E 03/29-14 66 29 8 50 37 W 8 8 3 1 W 22 14196 W 14170373 E 03/29-15 66 29 8 50 37 W 8 13 3 1 WNW 22 14947 WNW 14176711 E 03/29-16 66 29 8 49 38 W 8 14 3 1 WNW 23 12836 WNW 15161437 E 03/29-17 66 29 8 46 42 W 9 14 3 1 WNW 25 10726 WNW 16146162 V 03/29-18 71 24 5 43 47 W 9 15 3 1 NW 26 8615 NW 17130888 V 03/29-19 71 24 5 41 52 W 9 15 3 1 NW 26 6824 WNW 17103711 V 03/29-20 71 24 5 38 59 W 10 16 3 1 WNW 26 5034 WNW 17 76535 G 03/29-21 71 24 5 36 66 W 10 16 3 1 WNW 25 3243 WNW 17 49359 F 03/29-22 71 24 5 35 70 W 10 16 3 1 WNW 24 2964 WNW 17 44082 F 03/29-23 71 24 5 34 75 W 10 16 3 1 WNW 24 2684 W 16 38805 P 03/30-00 64 22 4 34 75 W 10 16 3 1 WNW 23 2404 W 16 33528 P 03/30-01 64 22 4 33 78 W 12 17 3 1 WNW 23 2292 W 17 34914 P 03/30-02 64 22 4 32 79 W 12 20 3 1 WNW 23 2180 W 20 36300 P 03/30-03 64 22 4 32 77 W 13 21 3 1 WNW 23 2069 W 21 37686 P 03/30-04 64 22 4 31 78 W 13 21 3 1 WNW 23 1806 W 21 32056 P 03/30-05 64 22 4 30 80 W 13 21 3 1 WNW 24 1544 W 20 26426 P 03/30-06 64 23 5 30 78 W 13 21 3 1 WNW 25 1282 W 18 20796 P 03/30-07 64 23 5 32 71 W 12 20 3 1 WNW 29 3028 W 22 66803 G 03/30-08 64 23 5 35 63 W 12 18 2 1 WNW 32 4773 WNW 25112810 V 03/30-09 64 23 5 39 54 W 10 16 2 1 WNW 36 6519 WNW 28158818 E 03/30-10 64 23 5 42 48 W 9 16 2 1 WNW 38 8194 WNW 26186185 E 03/30-11 64 23 5 45 43 WNW 9 15 2 1 WNW 41 9870 WNW 25213552 E 03/30-12 72 31 10 47 40 WNW 9 15 2 1 WNW 44 11545 WNW 24240919 E 03/30-13 72 31 10 49 37 WNW 9 15 2 1 WNW 45 11604 WNW 24240128 E 03/30-14 72 31 10 49 37 WNW 10 16 2 1 WNW 46 11663 WNW 24239337 E 03/30-15 72 31 10 48 38 WNW 10 16 2 1 WNW 45 11721 WNW 23238545 E 03/30-16 72 31 10 47 40 WNW 10 17 2 1 WNW 44 10866 WNW 23219851 E 03/30-17 72 31 10 45 43 WNW 10 17 2 1 WNW 43 10010 WNW 23201156 E 03/30-18 55 20 4 42 49 WNW 10 16 2 1 WNW 40 9155 WNW 23182462 E 03/30-19 55 20 4 40 53 WNW 10 16 2 1 WNW 39 7938 WNW 22153582 E 03/30-20 55 20 4 37 61 WNW 9 15 2 1 WNW 38 6722 WNW 21124701 V 03/30-21 55 20 4 35 67 W 8 13 2 1 WNW 37 5505 WNW 20 95821 G 03/30-22 55 20 4 34 71 W 7 7 2 1 WNW 36 4189 WNW 16 67506 G 03/30-23 55 20 4 33 75 W 6 6 3 1 WNW 36 2873 W 12 39191 P 03/31-00 32 12 2 32 78 W 6 6 3 1 WNW 36 1557 W 8 10877 P 03/31-01 32 12 2 32 77 W 6 6 3 1 WNW 36 1413 W 8 10429 P 03/31-02 32 12 2 32 75 W 6 6 3 1 WNW 37 1269 W 9 9982 P 03/31-03 32 12 2 31 76 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 37 1124 WSW 9 9535 P 03/31-04 32 12 2 31 73 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 36 944 W 10 8091 P 03/31-05 32 12 2 30 74 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 36 764 W 10 6647 P 03/31-06 29 3 1 30 72 W 8 13 3 1 WNW 35 584 W 10 5203 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...JEFF SINGER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130328.LILYL.01/BOU