FNUS73 KPAH 281311 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR EBP SOUTH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 811 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON MARCH 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AT THE TIME OF IGNITION MAY SLOW THE RISE OF TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND IGNITION TIME...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY 4 PM CDT...WITH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 MPH. HOWEVER... TWENTY FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 5 MPH. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE HEARTLAND REGION WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL TRANSFORM INTO A WARM FRONT AND WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HEARTLAND REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY MONDAY. A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW. BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMAL HIGHS DURING THE FIRST PART OF APRIL ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 60. RH..................39 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 0 TO 7 MPH. TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC MCR MCR MCR PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............53 54 55 56 56 55 RH..............44 42 41 40 44 49 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 1 1 1 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST. MIX HGT (KFT)...4.1 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 6 7 7 7 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39. RH..................MAX 95 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 7 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............53 50 48 47 45 45 44 42 41 41 40 40 RH..............55 61 62 64 66 72 74 78 81 80 82 83 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...5.6 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 51. RH..................MIN 75 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................62 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 7 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............40 41 43 45 46 48 49 50 50 51 50 50 RH..............86 89 86 87 85 81 80 81 82 81 82 80 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.0 2 5 8 12 14 15 15 14 12 9 7 CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...DANIEL CASTO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130328.EBPSO.01/PAH