FNUS73 KPAH 281212 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR PIGEON CREEK...FWS, CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 712 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 CDT ON MARCH 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AT IGNITION TIME WILL DETERMINE THE RATE OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A MORE OPTIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE HEARTLAND REGION WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL TRANSFORM INTO A WARM FRONT AND WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HEARTLAND REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY MONDAY. A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW. BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMAL HIGHS DURING THE FIRST PART OF APRIL ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY (60-70 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE(40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........42 AT IGNITION...MAX 57. RH..................61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1000-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 8 MPH. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............40 42 44 47 50 53 54 56 56 55 54 RH..............66 63 60 56 50 47 43 39 43 49 55 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E 20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.0 1 2 2 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 54 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-2300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 8 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............52 49 48 46 45 44 43 42 41 41 40 40 RH..............61 67 72 76 79 78 81 85 88 90 92 97 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.9 4.5 3.9 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 51. RH..................MIN 73 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................62 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............40 41 43 45 46 48 49 49 50 50 50 50 RH..............97 96 89 87 85 81 80 78 79 79 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE S SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.0 2 5 7 9 12 13 13 12 10 8 7 CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...RAY PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130328.PIGEO.01/PAH